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MrMind comments on Open thread, June 27 - July 3, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: Clarity 27 June 2016 01:46AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 06 July 2016 02:47:52PM 1 point [-]

Prediction markets reflects the opinion of those who enter in the market. AFAIK there's no barrier to the lower income strata of the popoluation.

The thing is, the markets reflect committed-capital-weighted opinions of market participants. This is not an egalitarian democracy.

Comment author: MrMind 07 July 2016 07:14:13AM 0 points [-]

Possibly we (meaning I vs Epicurean Dealmaker) have a very different notion of 'elite'.
I imagine the elite as the 10% (or 5% or 1%, depending on your Pareto distribution) which has enough capital to hedge against market fluctuations (or enough to create it entirely); as far as I understand instead ED means as 'elite' anyone who has enough money to invest in a market.

Comment author: Lumifer 07 July 2016 02:26:10PM 1 point [-]

I don't think this is the issue. If you invest $10m into some market position, your "opinion" literally has one million times the impact of someone who invested $10. It's not just "people who invest" vs "people who do not invest". Even among those who invest, the more capital you apply, the more your opinion matters.

Markets are inherently capital-weighted and their opinion necessarily reflects the positions of the rich to a much greater degree.