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MrMind comments on Open thread, Jul. 04 - Jul. 10, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: MrMind 04 July 2016 07:02AM

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Comment author: MrMind 07 July 2016 07:04:16AM *  0 points [-]

Another possibility is that after n years the algorithm smoothes out the probability of all the possible futures so that they are equally likely...
The problem is not only computational: unless there are some strong pruning heuristics, the value of predicting the far future decays rapidly, since the probability mass (which is conserved) becomes diluted between more and more branches.