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Viliam comments on Open thread, Jul. 11 - Jul. 17, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I've been thinking about belief as anticipation versus belief as association.
Some people associate with beliefs like they associate with sports teams. Asking them to provide evidence for their belief is like asking them to provide evidence for their sports team being "the best."
And beliefs as anticipation you know, I'm sure.
My question is: What are signs of a "belief" being an anticipation versus it being a mere association (or other non-anticipating belief)?
One is the attempt to defend against falsification: "If you REALLY believed you wouldn't be making excuses in advance, you would confidently accept a test that you knew would show how right you were."
Got any other useful ones?
This is further complicated by the fact that even the anticipation-beliefs are probabilistic. So you can have a "belief" that says "I love my sports team", and a belief that says "I expect my team to win (probability 80%)".
So in both cases it is possible for the team to lose and the person to keep their belief.