Nobody should have much confidence in such predictions
If your model doesn't even get to 10%, then I say: unless you have hundreds of competing models in your mind (who has?), then do not even bother.
Your comment helped me reach the conclusion that reading AoE would be a waste of time.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.