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Brillyant comments on Open thread, Jul. 11 - Jul. 17, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Okay.
My point was only that there is a spectrum. Some beliefs are anticipatory (i.e. people actually believe them) and others are just associations (i.e. people don't believe them, but they find the idea of saying they believe in them to be so important they swear up and down they believe in them)...
But most beliefs are somewhere in the grey middle, with people assigning a "gut feeling probability" to each belief, without doing any math.
With those semantics people not only have a "gut feeling probability" but also a "heart feeling probability" and various similar "probabilities". Those don't have to be the same and depending on the context the person is going to use a different one.
Meh. Not really. There is a strong connotation in American English for "gut feeling" that means essentially instinct or intuition.
Here's a definition I found via Google's first page results: "an instinct or intuition; an immediate or basic feeling or reaction without a logical rationale"
This is what I meant. I think that would be clear to a high percentage of readers.
Here's again the problem that you don't look at the way humans reason but against the abstract concepts defined in the dictionary.
The way terms are defined in the dictionary has little to do with the empiric reality that some people give different intuitive answers when they feel into their gut or when they feel into their heart.