kokotajlod comments on New Pascal's Mugging idea for potential solution - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yes, I've read it, but not at the level of detail where I can engage with it. Since it is costly for me to learn the math necessary to figure this out for good, I figured I'd put the basic idea up for discussion first just in case there was something obvious I overlooked.
Edit: OK, now I think I understand it well enough to say how it interacts with what I've been thinking. See my other comment .