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turchin comments on Inverse cryonics: one weird trick to persuade anyone to sign up for cryonics today! - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (36)
Are you signed for cryonics?
Nope, but my finances are pretty dire right now, though when I do I will certainly post about it. Thanks for asking.
But won't it be difficult convincing others to sign up (and sign up as soon as possible) if you are not signed up yourself? Even if it is financial, many people live paycheck-to-paycheck, but I believe could still afford cryonic preservation.
I would not personally advise this course of action, so we'll have to agree to disagree. Especially if you are young, I think it makes more sense to first sort out your finances.
Are your finances so dire that if someone offered you $1/day in exchange for playing Russian Roulette, you would accept? If not, aren't you being just as irrational as you are accusing those who fail to accept your argument of being?
No, that doesn't work if I expect to sign up soon.
1% of a bad bet is still a bad bet.o
No, it's not 1% of the bet. My income goes up in the future meaning that the utility of money goes down. My mortality rate goes up since I am young, so the value of cryonics goes up.
By how many orders of magnitude? Would you play Russian Roulette for $10/day? It seemed to me that implicit in your argument was that even if someone disagrees with you about the expected value, an order of magnitude or so wouldn't invalidate it. There's a rather narrow set of circumstances where your argument doesn't apply to your own situation. Simply asserting that you will sign up soon is far from sufficient. And note that many conditions necessitate further conditions; for instance, if you claim that your current utility/dollar ratio is ten times what it will be in a year, then you'd better not have turned down any loans with APY less than 900%.
And how does the value of cryonics go up as your mortality rate does? Are you planning on enrolling in a program with a fixed monthly fee?
Back of the envelope I would say my chances of dying in the next 6 months and also being successfully cryopreserved (assuming I magically completed the signup process immediately) are about 1 in 10000. That trades off against using my time and money at a time when I'm short of both.
Everyone plays Russian Roulette for $10 per day, assuming that probabilities lower than 1 out of 6 count as Russian Roulette. Just walking out of the house increases my chance of dying, never mind actually driving to some place that is not necessary for staying alive.
Since I was unemployed with no assets, I wasn't (until very recently, i.e. yesterday) eligible for any kind of personal loan.
Mortality rate in your late 20s is low, and when you add that accidents, sudden deaths and murder are already very bad for cryo, that is further compounded.
Then you have the problem that I'm not in the USA (I plan to eventually move, once my career is strong enough to score the relevant visa); being in the US is the best way to ensure a successful, timely suspension. If you are in Europe you have to both pay more for transport and you will be damaged more by the long journey, assuming you die unexpectedly in Europe.
Well obviously it is worth more to mitigate death if your death is more likely. Especially when the kinds of ways you die when young are bad for yoir cryo chances.
OTOH it looks like the mortality in your late 20s in the EU is less than half that in the US.
Yeah, but I'm not planning on magically becoming a randomly chosen 29 year old American male. If you condition on being wealthy and living in Mountain view or something I would expect the correlation to go away.