In fact, first two propositions in Bostrom's article are very improbable, especially if we include in the consideration all other civilizations.
1) "All possible civilizations will never create simulations" - seems to be very implausible, we are already good in creating movies, dreams and games.
2) "All possible civilizations will go extinct before they create simulations - it also seems implausible.
"All possible civilizations will never create simulations" - seems to be very implausible... "All possible civilizations will go extinct before they create simulations" - it also seems implausible
We only need to be concerned about actual civilizations, not all possible civilizations. We don't know how many actual civilizations there are, so there could be very few (we know of only one). We also don't know how difficult creating a sufficiently realistic simulation will be - obviously the more difficult it is to achieve such a simulati...
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