A scientific mindset has a lower probability of being positive expected value because there is more than one value when it comes to making decisions, sometimes in conflict with each other. This can lead to cognitive dissonance in daily life. It's because science is a tool, the best one we got. Aligning with reality has a higher probability as it's an emotional heuristic, with only one value necessary.
Aligning with reality means submitting yourself emotionally, similar to how a religious person submits to God, but in this case, our true creator: To logic, where it is defined here as "the consistent patterns which bring about reality". Then you accept facts fully. You understand how everything is probabilities, as per one interpretation of quantum mechanics and that experience is a tool rather than a goal. Using inductive reasoning and deciding actions as per positive expected value allows you to accept facts and be aligned with reality.
It's hard if you keep thinking binary, whether it be absolutes or not, 1's or 0's. Because to be able to accept facts it to be able to accept one might be wrong, everything is probabilities, infinite possibilities. Practically, if you know exercising every day is positive expected value, for example, then as you align yourself with reality in every moment, you realize even if you injure yourself accidentally today, you won't give up reality. Because you made the most efficient action as per your knowledge and you already accounted for the probability of accidentally injuring yourself.
So as you keep feeling you also upgrade it with the probabilities to keep your emotions aligned with reality and easier able to handle situations as I mentioned above, however, maybe something more specific if someone breaks your trust. You already took it in consideration so you won't completely lose trust and emotions for reality.
When you accept and align yourself with reality, then the facts which underlie it, with our current understandings and as long as the likelihood is high, you keep aligning yourself. Experience truly is a feedback loop which results in whatever you feed it.
Regarding what aligning with reality entails: When you're constantly aligning yourself to reality, as long as you deem the probability high you'll be able to emotionally resonate with insights gained. For example, neuroscience will tell you, that you and your environment are not separate from each other, it's all a part of your neural activity. So helping another is helping you. If that doesn't resonate enough, for example, evolutionary biology that we're all descendants from stardust might. Or that there is a probability that you don't exist (as per QM) although very small. So what happens? Your identity and self vanishes, as it's no longer aligned with reality, you accept facts, emotionally. Then you keep the momentum by doing logical actions as per positive expected value after you learn everything what truly is you, and so on.
It's about what Einstein believed in and Carl Sagan, Spinoza's. However Einstein couldn't accept QM because he was thinking in absolutes already, and was unaware of how the brain works. Which we do now, for example, know we're all inherently in denial, and how memory storage works, etc. If he knew that he might have had a different view.
I can't really fix up this text right now but I hope it can somehow help for you to understand what it means to align with reality. It's really important to accept that experience is a tool, not a goal, from insights from evolutionary biology for example. Then there is reality. Who is aligning, if there is only reality?
I think there is an irreconcilable tension between your statement that one should completely emotionally submit to and align with facts, and that one should use a Bayesian epistemology to manage beliefs.
There are many things in life and in science that I'm very certain about, but by the laws of probability I can never be 100% certain. There are many more things that I am less than certain about, and hold a cloud of possible explanations, the most likely of which may only be 20% probable in my estimation. I should only "submit" to any particular b...
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