Your power calculation was for an effect size of 1/3, which only makes sense if you know exactly which women
Not sure I follow. I wasn't talking about the gene, I was talking about the net fertility impact which must exist in the sisters to offset their gay brother's lack of fitness. If you want to see if it exists, all you have to do is compare the sisters of gay men to non-gay men; either the former have enough extra babies to make up for it or not.
have the gene.
There is no single gene for homosexuality otherwise the pedigree studies would look much clearer than they do and not like a liability-threshold sort of thing, the linkage studies would've likely already found it, or 23andMe's GWAS would've (homosexuality is so common that a single variant would have to be very common; they probably ran a GCTA since I know they've GCTAed at least 100 traits they haven't published on but not whether they checked the correlation with chromosome length to check for polygenicity). So I'm not sure your calculations there are relevant.
Yes, of course all my calculations are under the simplifying assumption of a single gene. But under that assumption, sisters of gay men have only 1/2 chance of having the gene and so their expected additional number of babies is only 1/6. If you don't think that this assumption is appropriate, you can suggest some other model and do a calculation. One thing I can guarantee you is that it won't produce the number 1/3.
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