and in my opinion SSA is right, and SIA is wrong.
I'm curious: is this grounded on anything beyond your intuition in these cases?
SSI is grounded on frequency. In the Incubator situation, the SSI probabilities are:
P(1st cell) = 2/3
P(2nd cell) = 1/3
P(H | 1st cell) = 1/2
P(H | 2nd cell) = 0
(FYI, I find this intuitive, and find SSA in this situation unintuitive.)
These agree with the actual frequencies, in terms of expected number of people in different circumstances, if you repeat this experiment. And frequencies seem very important to me, because if you're a utilitarian that's what you care about. If we consider torturing anyone in the first cell vs. torturing anyone in the second cell, the former is twice as bad in expectation (please tell me if you disagree, because I would find this very surprising).
So your probabilities aren't grounded in frequency&utility. Is there something else they're grounded in that you care about? Or do you choose them only because they feel intuitive?
These agree with the actual frequencies, in terms of expected number of people in different circumstances, if you repeat this experiment. And frequencies seem very important to me, because if you're a utilitarian that's what you care about.
In a previous thread on Sleeping Beauty, I showed that if there are multiple experiments, SSA will assign intermediate probabilities, closer to the SIA probabilities. And if you run an infinite number, it will converge to the SIA probabilities. So you will partially get this benefit in any case; but apart from this, t...
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