Actually that's exactly what it is: pretty darn close to the textbook definition of Bayesian evidence. If you believe that rationalists do what they claim to do and modify their behavior in ways that are truth-seeking, and if objective studies show that rationalists have not significantly updated in the direction of veganism, that would in fact be Bayesian evidence against the truth of vegan arguments.
That doesn't mean veganism is wrong. Maybe all the meat eaters on LW are in fact wrong, and there's some sort of collective delusion preventing people from accepting and/or acting upon arguments for veganism. But an intellectually honest approach would be to recognize the possibility that you are wrong, as that is a result also consistent with the observed evidence.
I see now that it could be evidence. I do think its the second paragraph though. I have questioned myself very deeply on this from many angles and I still think I'm correct. I think there's a collective delusion on acting upon arguments for veganism. The difference between veganism and other philosophies is you actually have to do something on a day to day basis unlike a lot of others.
I am very open to being wrong. I know exactly what information would have to be presented to change my opinion.
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