I disagree. I have presented arguments on LW in the past that if the experiment is run once in the history of the universe, you should reason as a halfer, but if the experiment is run many times, you will assign a probability in between 1/2 and 1/3, approaching one third as the number of times approaches infinity. I think that this applies even if you know the numerical identity of your particular run.
Interesting! I was away from LW for a long time and probably missed it. Can you give a link, or sketch the argument here?
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