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Dagon comments on Why Bayesians should two-box in a one-shot - Less Wrong Discussion

1 Post author: PhilGoetz 15 December 2017 05:39PM

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Comment author: Dagon 16 December 2017 05:34:36PM 1 point [-]

If you rule out probabilities of 1, what do you assign to the probability that Omega is cheating, and somehow gimmicking the boxes to change the contents the instant you indicate your choice, before the contents are revealed?

Presumably the mechanisms of "correct prediction" are irrelevant, and once your expectation that this instance will be predicted correctly gets above million-to-one, you one-box.