Well, let's imagine a system which actually is -- and that might be a stretch -- intelligently designed.
This means it doesn't say "I diagnose this patient with X". It says "Here is a list of conditions along with their probabilities". It also doesn't say "No diagnosis found" -- it says "Here's a list of conditions along with their probabilities, it's just that the top 20 conditions all have probabilities between 2% and 6%".
It also says things like "The best way to make the diagnosis more specific would be to run test A, then test B, and if it came back in this particular range, then test C".
A doctor might ask it "What about disease Y?" and the expert system will answer "It's probability is such-and-such, it's not zero because of symptoms Q and P, but it's not high because test A came back negative and test B showed results in this range. If you want to get more certain with respect to disease Y, use test C."
And there probably would be button which says "Explain" and pressing it will show the precisely what leads to the probability of disease X being what it is, and the doctor should be able to poke around it and say things like "What happens if we change these coughs to hiccups?"
An intelligently designed expert system often does not replace the specialist -- it supports her, allows her to interact with it, ask questions, refine queries, etc.
If you have a patient with multiple nonspecific symptoms who takes a dozen different medications every day, a doctor cannot properly evaluate all the probabilities and interactions in her head. But an expert system can. It works best as a teammate of a human, not as something which just tells her.
Well, let's imagine a system which actually is -- and that might be a stretch -- intelligently designed.
Us? I'm a mechanical engineer. I haven't even read The Checklist Manifesto. I am manifestly unqualified either to design a user interface or to design a system for automated diagnosis of disease - and, as decades of professional failure have shown, neither of these is a task to be lightly ventured upon by dilettantes. The possible errors are simply too numerous and subtle for me to be assured of avoiding them. Case in point: prior to reading that arti...
[Originally posted to my personal blog, reposted here with edits.]
Introduction
Something Impossible
The Well-Functioning Gear
Recursive Heroic Responsibility
Heroic responsibility for average humans under average conditions
I can predict at least one thing that people will say in the comments, because I've heard it hundreds of times–that Swimmer963 is a clear example of someone who should leave nursing, take the meta-level responsibility, and do something higher impact for the usual. Because she's smart. Because she's rational. Whatever.
Fine. This post isn't about me. Whether I like it or not, the concept of heroic responsibility is now a part of my value system, and I probably am going to leave nursing.
But what about the other nurses on my unit, the ones who are competent and motivated and curious and really care? Would familiarity with the concept of heroic responsibility help or hinder them in their work? Honestly, I predict that they would feel alienated, that they would assume I held a low opinion of them (which I don't, and I really don't want them to think that I do), and that they would flinch away and go back to the things that they were doing anyway, the role where they were comfortable–or that, if they did accept it, it would cause them to burn out. So as a consequentialist, I'm not going to tell them.
And yeah, that bothers me. Because I'm not a special snowflake. Because I want to live in a world where rationality helps everyone. Because I feel like the reason they would react that was isn't because of anything about them as people, or because heroic responsibility is a bad thing, but because I'm not able to communicate to them what I mean. Maybe stupid reasons. Still bothers me.