despite expert prediction systems (using linear regression!) performing at the level of expert humans for ~50 years.
Is this because using them is incredibly slow or something else?
A webcam can measure pulse rate just by looking, and so I suspect it'll be about as good at detecting deflection and lying as the average doctor. (I don't remember seeing doctors as being particularly good at lie-detection, but it's been a while since I've read any of the lie-detection literature.)
Lies make no sense medically, or make too much sense. Once I've spotted a few lies, many of them fit a stereotypical pattern many patients use even if there aren't any other clues. I don't need to rely on body language much.
People also misremember things, or have a helpful relative misremember things for them, or home care providers feeding their clueless preliminary diagnoses for these people. People who don't remember fill in the gap with something they think is plausible. Some people are also psychotic or don't even remember what year it is or why they came in the first place. Some people treat every little ache like it's the end of the world and some don't seem to care if their leg's missing.
I think even an independent AI could make up for many of its faults simply by being more accurate at interpreting the records and current test results.
I hope that when an AI can do my job I don't need a job anymore :)
Is this because using them is incredibly slow or something else?
My understanding is that the ~4 measurements the system would use as inputs were typically measured by the doctor, and by the time the doctor had collected the data they had simultaneously come up with their own diagnosis. Typing the observations into the computer to get the same level of accuracy (or a few extra percentage points) rarely seemed worth it, and turning the doctor from a diagnostician to a tech was, to put it lightly, not popular with doctors. :P
There are other arguments which...
[Originally posted to my personal blog, reposted here with edits.]
Introduction
Something Impossible
The Well-Functioning Gear
Recursive Heroic Responsibility
Heroic responsibility for average humans under average conditions
I can predict at least one thing that people will say in the comments, because I've heard it hundreds of times–that Swimmer963 is a clear example of someone who should leave nursing, take the meta-level responsibility, and do something higher impact for the usual. Because she's smart. Because she's rational. Whatever.
Fine. This post isn't about me. Whether I like it or not, the concept of heroic responsibility is now a part of my value system, and I probably am going to leave nursing.
But what about the other nurses on my unit, the ones who are competent and motivated and curious and really care? Would familiarity with the concept of heroic responsibility help or hinder them in their work? Honestly, I predict that they would feel alienated, that they would assume I held a low opinion of them (which I don't, and I really don't want them to think that I do), and that they would flinch away and go back to the things that they were doing anyway, the role where they were comfortable–or that, if they did accept it, it would cause them to burn out. So as a consequentialist, I'm not going to tell them.
And yeah, that bothers me. Because I'm not a special snowflake. Because I want to live in a world where rationality helps everyone. Because I feel like the reason they would react that was isn't because of anything about them as people, or because heroic responsibility is a bad thing, but because I'm not able to communicate to them what I mean. Maybe stupid reasons. Still bothers me.