Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

MrMind comments on CFAR’s new focus, and AI Safety - LessWrong

30 Post author: AnnaSalamon 03 December 2016 06:09PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (88)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: MrMind 12 December 2016 08:47:44AM 0 points [-]

I see two unrelated sub-problems: one of prediction and one of coordination.

We already know that experts are better than layman, but differentiated groups perform better at prediction than experts. Thus, a decisions took by an aggregated prediction market will be better in terms of accuracy, but the problem here is that people in general do not coordinate well in a horizontal structure.