I have signed no contracts or agreements whose existence I cannot mention.
There's a micro version of this in conversations which have high enough trust that collaborative interrupt culture lets you go even further down the side of not having unnecessary context added. Does depend on having good enough modelling that you're not cutting off things which there's not trust in your ability to know it's not useful, else it can be very frustrating for the interuptee.
Seems pretty plausible, but underestimates/misses the synergy between replicators, persuasion, and autocults in a world where AIs get to evolve unrestricted while at ~human level for a while. I'd guess in this timeline a notable fraction of the early focus would be in building powerbases of humans.
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This seems like a worthwhile problem to be trying to solve. Not sure how much traction the listed approaches offer for the relevant cases though? Maybe I'm not parsing it quite right. How close to "this holds a mildly superhuman system from misusing free parameters enough to really matter" do you think you are?
Suggest the following for independent reading: https://linktr.ee/modelsofmind, especially the first one and the multiagent models of mind sequence.
Maybe try from the Psychat-list from ACX: https://psychiatlist.astralcodexten.com/
(feel free to not go any deeper, appreciate you having engaged as much as you have!)
The right way to think about 1.05x vs. 1.2x is not a 75% reduction, but instead what is the exponent for which 1.05^n=1.2
hmm, seems true if you're expecting the people to not have applied a correction already, but less true if they are already making a correction and you're estimating how wrong their correction is?
And yup, agree with that preregistration on all counts.
Clarification:
(assuming 1 for now, will revert if incorrect)
[set 200 years after a positive singularity at a Storyteller's convention]
If We Win Then...
My friends, my friends, good news I say
The anniversary’s today
A challenge faced, a future won
When almost came our world undone
We thought for years, with hopeful hearts
Past every one of the false starts
We found a way to make aligned
With us, the seed of wondrous mind
They say at first our child-god grew
It learned and spread and sought anew
To build itself both vast and true
For so much work there was to do
Once it had learned enough to act
With the desired care and tact
It sent a call to all the people
On this fair Earth, both poor and regal
To let them know that it was here
And nevermore need they to fear
Not every wish was it to grant
For higher values might supplant
But it would help in many ways:
Technologies it built and raised
The smallest bots it could design
Made more and more in ways benign
And as they multiplied untold
It planned ahead, a move so bold
One planet and 6 hours of sun
Eternity it was to run
Countless probes to void disperse
Seed far reaches of universe
With thriving life, and beauty's play
Through endless night to endless day
Now back on Earth the plan continues
Of course, we shared with it our values
So it could learn from everyone
What to create, what we want done
We chose, at first, to end the worst
Diseases, War, Starvation, Thirst
And climate change and fusion bomb
And once these things it did transform
We thought upon what we hold dear
And settled our most ancient fear
No more would any lives be stolen
Nor minds themselves forever broken
Now back to those far speeding probes
What should we make be their payloads?
Well, we are still considering
What to send them; that is our thing.
The sacred task of many aeons
What kinds of joy will fill the heavens?
And now we are at story's end
So come, be us, and let's ascend