To my view, the 1/36 is "obviously" the right answer, what's interesting is exactly how it all went wrong in the other case. I'm honestly not all that enlightened by the argument given here nor in the links. The important question is, how would I recognise this mistake easily in the future? The best I have for the moment is "don't blindly apply a proportion argument" and "be careful when dealing with infinite scenarios even when they're disguised as otherwise". I think the combination of the two was required here, the proportion argument failed because the maths which normally supports it couldn't be used without at some point colliding with the partly-hidden infinity in the problem setup.

I'd be interested in more development of how this relates to anthropic arguments. It does feel like it highlights some of the weaknesses in anthropic arguments. It seems to strongly undermine the doomsday argument in particular. My take on it is that it highlights the folly of the idea that population is endlessly exponentially growing. At some point that has to stop regardless of whether it has yet already, and as soon as you take that into account I suspect the maths behind the argument collapses.

Edit: Just another thought. I tried harder to understand your argument and I'm not convinced it's enough. Have you heard of ignorance priors? They're the prior you use, in fact the prior you need to use, to represent a state of no knowledge about a measurement other than an invariance property which identifies the type of measurement it is. So an ignorance prior for a position is constant, and for a scale is 1/x, and for a probability has been at least argued to be 1/x(1-x). These all have the property that their integral is infinite, but they work because as soon as you add some knowledge and apply Bayes rule the result becomes integrable. These are part of the foundations of Bayesian probability theory. So while I agree with the conclusion, I don't think the argument that the prior is unnormalisable is sufficient proof.

A common bucket error for me: Idea X is a potentially very important research idea that is, as far as I know, original to me. It would

really suckto discover that this wasn't original to me. Thus, Idon't want to find outif this is already in the literature.This is key. Any habit that involves "gritting your teeth" is not durable.

Also, Focusing should easily be part of the LW "required reading".

I'm reading Gendlin's book

Focusingand struggling with it -- it's hard for me to understand why you and Anna think so highly of this book. It's hard to get past all the mystic woo about knowledge "in the body"; Gendlin seems to think that anything not in the conscious mind is somehow stored/processed out there in the muscles and bones. Even taking that as metaphorical -- which Gendlin clearly does not -- I find his description of the process very unclear.