Minor quibble, but:
I currently don't eat animals, as I'm uncertain enough about many of them. I eat fish and shrimp
Fish and shrimp are animals; did you mean "mammals"? Or something else?
Thanks for sharing.
After reading the screenshots (linked in the Google Docs link) of Alice's conversation with Drew, I mostly don't agree with the claim that Alice was lying*. For one thing, the December 15 exchange with Drew indicates that he ultimately did not bring her dinner because he didn't want to get fast food or drive more than 12 minutes away (he did later offer to bring her a salad from the place he ended up going to, which she declined.) This is a pretty different picture than the conclusion one would draw from just reading the screenshot embedded in the post, which makes it sound like Alice did receive her requested... (read more)
I haven't looked into this, no. I'm quite confident that I have COVID; I have all the classic symptoms (fever, cough, shortness of breath). I also re-tested using an antigen test today with a nasal-only swab and got a positive.
As a datapoint, I tested positive on 3 antigen tests of two different kinds and negative on a Cue test in the same hour, on my first day of having COVID. My suspicion is that this was because I swabbed my throat for the antigen tests, but not for the Cue test because I wasn't sure if saliva worked for Cue. As further supporting evidence, I lightly brushed my throat for antigen test #1 and got an extremely faint line, and then vigorously swabbed it less an than hour later and got a very clear dark line (both on BinaxNow tests).
Edit: These tests were all performed yesterday, May 2 2022.
If I take a "non-sentient" chicken and cut off its wings, and I watch it as it helplessly tries to fly repeatedly, but is unable to, this strikes me as a form of harm to the chicken and its values even if the chicken is not having a subjective experience of its condition.
I'm curious how you would distinguish between entities that can be harmed in a morally relevant way and entities that cannot. I use subjective experience to make this distinction, but it sounds like you're using something like -- thwarted intentions? telos-violation? I suspect we'd both agree that chickens are morally relevant and (say) pencils are not, and that snapping a... (read more)
Most people are tested for cancer because they have one or more symptoms consistent with cancer. So the base rate of 1% "for the patient's age and sex" isn't the correct prior, because most of the people in the base rate have no symptoms that would provoke a test.
To clarify, the problem that Gigerenzer posed to doctors began with "A 50-year-old woman, no symptoms, participates in a routine mammography screening". You're right that if there were symptoms or other reasons to suspect having cancer, that should be factored into the prior. (And routine mammograms are in fact recommended to all women of a certain age in the US.)
... (read more)We really need a computation
An earlier draft of this actually mentioned vaccination status, and I only removed it for sentence flow reasons. You're right that vaccination status (or prior history of COVID) is an important part of your prior estimate, along with prevalence in your area, and your activities/level of exposure. The microCOVID calculator I linked factors in all three of these. I've also edited the relevant sentence in the "Using Bayes factors" section to mention vaccination status.
Wow, that is surprising, thanks for sharing. Am I reading correctly that you got no positive NAAT/PCR tests, and only got positives from antigen tests?
I took 13 rapid tests in total, 5 of which were positive, and 4 of these positive tests were from the same brand. 4 out of 5 of the tests of that brand that I have taken were positive.
Would you be up for sharing what brand that was?
I don't yet know enough about what causes false positives and false negatives in either antigen tests or NAATs to speculate much, but I appreciate this datapoint! (Also, glad you're feeling well and didn't develop any symptoms)
Thanks for linking the meta-analysis and the other papers; will read (and possibly update the post afterwards)! I especially appreciate that the meta-analysis includes studies of BinaxNOW, something I'd been looking for.
Sensitivity for Ct < 25: 94%, Ct > 3: 30%. (I'll be writing more about these results in a bit, but the short version is that this strongly supports the belief that test sensitivity depends strongly on viral load and will be highest during peak infectivity).
Nice, I'd been hearing/reading about using cycle count to determine how much a test's results track infectiousness, and that's really to see the results so starkly supporting that. Looking forward to your writeup!
This is a writeup of COVID test accuracies that I put together for my own interest, and shared with friends and housemates to help us reason about COVID risk. Some of these friends suggested that I post this to LessWrong. I am not a statistician or an expert in medical research.
We often hear that some kinds of COVID tests are more accurate than others — PCR tests are more accurate than rapid antigen tests, and rapid antigen tests are more accurate if you have symptoms than if you don't. A test's accuracy is often presented as two separate terms: sensitivity (what proportion of diseased patients the test accurately identifies as diseased) and... (read 2568 more words →)
What does "optimizing for group fun" mean? Is this a reference to a particular blog post?