After reading this post, I have some questions and I asked the author directly for discussions.
Here's the questions and replies I got from Bucky! Hope it'd be useful to some of you.
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Q1.
In the section of Working through the odds, how is the priori of the contestant's judge (0% for C and D) affecting the posteriori (28% 48% 24% 0% from the audience)?
And, how did it change from 6:1 (66% 11% 11% 11%, 2/3 given by Kelly's criterion) to only a 10% edge?
A1.
6:1 is the amount of evidence I required in order to be justified in guessing. This is calculated from my prior odds for each answer (p=0.25) requiring to... (read 694 more words →)
After reading this post, I have some questions and I asked the author directly for discussions.
Here's the questions and replies I got from Bucky! Hope it'd be useful to some of you.
***
Q1.
In the section of Working through the odds, how is the priori of the contestant's judge (0% for C and D) affecting the posteriori (28% 48% 24% 0% from the audience)?
And, how did it change from 6:1 (66% 11% 11% 11%, 2/3 given by Kelly's criterion) to only a 10% edge?
A1.
6:1 is the amount of evidence I required in order to be justified in guessing. This is calculated from my prior odds for each answer (p=0.25) requiring to... (read 694 more words →)