There's an implicit assumption in this line of reasoning that military response is inherently escalatory but you are demonstrating with this line of reasoning that fear of military response is de-escalatory!
The assumption beneath that is that you are rational but your counterparty is unlike you and cannot be trusted to be rational - but if this is the case then you are trapped in a room with a madman with a knife and the only rational move is first strike.
There's an implicit assumption in this line of reasoning that military response is inherently escalatory but you are demonstrating with this line of reasoning that fear of military response is de-escalatory!
The assumption beneath that is that you are rational but your counterparty is unlike you and cannot be trusted to be rational - but if this is the case then you are trapped in a room with a madman with a knife and the only rational move is first strike.