Relevant data: https://x.com/wilhelmscreamin/status/1870804383283433731

my current guess is 15-20% of new users are already referred to the site because ChatGPT or Claude told them to read things here

Wow, this is higher than I would have expected! Do you have metrics showing this or otherwise what makes you think so?

Thank you!

Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I'd like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.

I agree this would be nice. But try clicking on a tag to see all of your forecasts under it!

I think it's still very useful to be able to predict your own behaviour (including in the case where you know you've made a prediction about it).

Things can get weird if you care more about the outcome of the prediction than the outcome of the event in itself, but this should rarely be the case - and is worth avoiding, I think.

Cool idea! I am not sure you'd be able to move to real money betting given that cheating is trivial (just google the text of the article).

Here's an alpha version of a Firefox version!

If you run into any problems, it would be great to hear about them (e.g. by email).

most potentially dangerous capabilities should be highly correlated, such that measuring any of them should be okay. Thus, I think it should be fine to mostly focus on measuring the capabilities that are most salient to policymakers and most clearly demonstrate risks.

Once labs are trying to pass capability evaluations, they will spend effort trying to suppress the specific capabilities being evaluated*, so I think we'd expect them to stop being so highly correlated.

* If they try methods of more generally suppressing the kinds of capabilities that might be dangerous, I think they're likely to test them most on the capabilities being evaluated by RSPs.

We've added a new deck of questions to the calibration training app - The World, then and now.

What was the world like 200 years ago, and how has it changed? Featuring charts from Our World in Data.

Thanks to Johanna Einsiedler and Jakob Graabak for helping build this deck!

We've also split the existing questions into decks, so you can focus on the topics you're most interested in:

This should be fixed now (it was a timezone-related bug!)

I've made a basic version of Fatebook for Discord - you can install it here!