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am maybe too enthusiastic in general for things being 'well organized'.
I don't think so. :)
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Yes. Although Moloch is "kind of" all powerful, there are also different levels of "all powerful" so there can be "more all powerful" things. :)
Would you be able to expand on those? I thought they were quite apt.
They both exist in different realms, however Elua's is bigger so by default Elua would win, but only if people care to live more in Elua's realm than Moloch's. Getting the map-territory distinction right is pretty important I think.
Accidents, if not too damaging, are net positive because they allow you to learn more & cause you to slow down. If you are wrong about what is good/right/whatever, and you think you are a good person, then you'd want to be corrected. So if you're having a lot of really damaging accidents in situations where you could reasonably be expected to control, that's probably not too good, but "reasonably be expected to control" is a very high standard. What I'm very explicitly not saying here is that the "just-world" hypothesis is true in any way; accidents *are* accidents, it's just that they can be net positive.
It's more effective to retain more values since physics is basically unitary (at least up to the point we know) so you'll have more people on your side if you retain the values of past people. So we'd be able to defeat this Moloch if we're careful.
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Now, to restate the original "thing" we were trying to honestly say we had a prior for:
Does this work, given this and our response?
We do not actually have a prior for Q, but we have a rough prior for a highly related question Q', which can be transformed likely fairly easily into a prior for Q