Amadeus Pagel — LessWrong

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Amadeus Pagel1yQuick Take

If I wanted to see a "quick take" I'd check twitter. I'd rather see more articles without having to click "load more".

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Amadeus Pagel's Shortform

Amadeus Pagel

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

Replying toStatus quo bias is usually justified

Amadeus Pagel2y

Status quo bias is usually justified

Status quo bias is a tendency to be skeptical of change, not an outright rejection. I don't see any reason to assume that this tendency is badly calibrated. I don't think the internet had to overcome that much resistance. At least in the US, early legislation like Section 230 was supportive. There are also technologies where more skepticism would have been appropriate, like leaded gasoline, and arguably even cars.

Status quo bias is usually justified

Amadeus Pagel

Generally, we know more about the status quo then about anything else.

We know that we can live in the current climate, we don’t know that about any other climate.
We know that society functions with current laws and norms, we don’t know that about any other set of laws.

Often, we are adapted to the status quo and the status quo is adapted to us.

We and the plants and animals we depend on evolved to live in the current the global climate. Many of our city are built on the coast, our population is distributed in a way that can be supported by agriculture.
Our laws are the result of millenia of trial and error.

Often,... (read more)

Replying toThe Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject

Amadeus Pagel2y

The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject

You've already mentioned cooking as an example and this is definitely something I'd like to imiprove in. I looked up how to crack eggs:

How to clip nails: https://www.tiktok.com/@jonijawne/video/7212337177772952838?q=cut%20nails&t=1713988543560

How to improve posture:

Replying toThe Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject

Amadeus Pagel2y

The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject

I was enthusiastic about the title of this post, hoping for something different from the usual lesswrong content, but disappointed by most of the examples. In my view if you take this idea of learning tacit knowledge with video seriously, it shouldn't affect just how you learn, but what you learn, rather then trying to learn book subjects by watching videos.

Replying toPriors and Prejudice

Amadeus Pagel2y

Priors and Prejudice

See also Rational Polarization.

Replying toPriors and Prejudice

Amadeus Pagel2y

Priors and Prejudice

I think charter cities are a questionable idea, even though I'm pro free markets. It seems that the sort of constitional change and stability required for a charter city is no easier to achieve then the kind of constitutional change and stability required for a free market in the entire country. I don't think trying either in developing countries as an outsider is a good use of anyone's resources.

Replying toThe Limits of the Existence Proof Argument for General Intelligence

Amadeus Pagel2y

The Limits of the Existence Proof Argument for General Intelligence

I think the 1st argument proves too much - I don't think we usually expect simulations to never work unless otherwise proven? Maybe I'm misunderstanding your point?

We usually use the term simulation to refer to models that are meant to help us understand something, maybe even to make predictions, but not to replace what is supposed to be simulated.

To keep things brief, the human intelligence explosion seems to require open brain surgery to re-arrange neurons, which seems a lot more complicated than flipping bits in RAM.

Yes, this is one of the many differences between the brain and the computer, and given so many differences we simply can't conclude from any attribute of a brain that a computer with the same attribute is possible.

The Limits of the Existence Proof Argument for General Intelligence

Amadeus Pagel

If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe.

— Carl Sagan

The existence proof argument for general intelligence, the idea that artificial general intelligence must be possible because human general intelligence exists, would not even be conclusive if by artificial general intelligence we meant a brain grown in a vat — the existence of a thing does not prove that it could have come into existence in any different way — but it’s absolutely absurd if by artificial general intelligence we mean a computer running certain software. The existence of anything does not prove that a computer running certain software could perfectly simulate that thing. This... (read more)

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Then why not choose the 5 year window?

You've selected the YTD (year to date) tab here. If you look at the 1D (today) tab, you see that the S&P indeed went up today.

Replying toAGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread

Amadeus Pagel4y

AGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread

Meta: Anonymity would make it easier to ask dumb questions.