With the scaling in compute it will not take long until small groups or even a single individual can train or fine tune an open source model to reach o1s level (and beyond). So I am wondering about the data. Does for instance o1 training set in these subjects contain data that is very hard to come by or is it mostly publicly available data? If it is the first, the limiting factor is the access to data and it should be reasonable easy to contain the risks. If it is the latter... O´boy...

I know I am a parrot here, but they are playing two different games. One wants to find One partner and the stop. The other one want to find as many partners as possible. You can not you compare utility across different goals. Yes. The poly person will have higher expected utility, but it is NOT comparable to the utility that the mono person derives. 

The wording should have been:
10% chance of finding a monogamous partner 10 times yields 1 monogamous partners in expectation and 0.63 in expected utility.
Not:
10% chance of finding a monogamous partner 10 times yields 0.63 monogamous partners in expectation.

and:
10% chance of finding a polyamorous partner 10 times yields 1 polyamorous partner in expectation and 1 in expected utility.
instead of:
10% chance of finding a polyamorous partner 10 times yields 1.00 polyamorous partners in expectation.

So there was a mix up in expected number of successes and expected utility.

Yes. But I think you have mixed up expected value and expected utility. Please show your calculations.

I do not understand your reasoning. Please show your calculations.

No, I think you are mixing the probability of at least one success in ten trails (with a 10% chance per trail), which is ~0.65=65%, with the expected value which is n=1 in both cases. You have the same chance of finding 1 partner in each case and you do the same number of trails. There is a 65% chance that you have at least 1 success in the 10 trails for each type of partner. The expected outcome in BOTH cases is 1 as in n=1 not 1 as in 100%

Probability of at least one success: ~65%
Probability of at least two success: ~26%

Why would is the expectation to find a polyamorous partner be higher in the case you gave? Same chance per try and same number of tries should equal same expectation.

Good write up! People Cannot Handle "fill in the blank" on smartphones. Sex, food, drugs, social status, betting, binge watching, shopping etc. in abundance and a click away is something we cannot not handle. If some of biggest corporations in the world spends billions upon billions each year to grab our attention, they will win and "you" will on average loose, unless you pull the cord (or turn off the wifi...) or have extreme will power. 

I am definitely not the one to throw the first rock, but is it not pretty embarrassing that most of us who thought we were so smart and independent are mere serfs, both intellectually and physically, to a little piece of electronics that have completely and utterly hijacked our brains and bodies.

yeah, that comic summarize it all!

As a side note, I wonder how many would get their PhD degree if the requirement was to publish 3-4 papers (2 single author and 1-2 co-author) were the main result (where it's applicable) needed to have p<0.01? Perhaps the paper publishing frenzy would slow down a little bit if the monograph came into fashion again?

Agree. I have never understood why p=0.05 is a holy threshold. People (and journals) toss out research if they get p=0.06 but they think they are their way to a Nobel prize with p=0.04. Madness.