Why would the value to me personally of existence of happy people be linear in the number of them? Does creating happy person #10000001 [almost] identical to the previous 10000000 as joyous as when the 1st of them was created? I think value is necessary limited. There are always diminishing returns from more of the same...
> if you have a program computing a predicate P(x, y) that is only true when y = f(x), and then the program just tries all possible y - is that more like a function, or more like a lookup?
In order to test whether y=f(x), the program must have calculated f(x) and stored it somewhere. How did it calculate f(x)? Did it use a table or calculate it directly?
What I meant is that the program knows how to check the answer, but not how to compute/find one, other than by trying every answer and then checking it. (Think: you have a math equation, no idea how to solve for x, so you are just trying all possible x in a row).
Aligned with current (majority) human values, meaning any social or scientific human progress would be stifled by the AI and humanity would be doomed to stagnate.
Only true when current values are taked naively, because future progress is a part of current human values (otherwise we would not be all agreeing with you that preventing it would be a bad outcome). It is hard to coherently generalize and extrapolate the human values, so that future progress is included in that, but not necessarily impossible.
Your timelines do not add up. Individual selection works on smaller time scales than group selection, and once we get to a stage of individual selection acting in any non-trivial way on AGI agents capable of directly affecting the outcomes, we already lost - I think at this point it's pretty much a given that humanity is doomed on a lot shorter time scale that that required for any kinds of group selection pressures to potentially save us...
This seems to be making a somewhat arbitrary distinction - specifically a program that computes f(x) in some sort of a direct way, and a program that computes it in some less direct way (you call it a "lookup table", but you seem to actually allow combining that with arbitrary decompression/decoding algorithms). But realistically, this is a spectrum - e.g. if you have a program computing a predicate P(x, y) that is only true when y = f(x), and then the program just tries all possible y - is that more like a function, or more like a lookup? What about if you have first compute some simple function of the input (e.g. x mod N), then do a lookup?
You ask a superintendent LLM to design a drug to cure a particular disease. It outputs just a few tokens with the drug formula. How do you use a previous gen LLM to check whether the drug will have some nasty humanity-killing side-effects years down the road?
Edited to add: the point is that even with a few tokens, you might still have a huge inferential distance that nothing with less intelligence (including humanity) could bridge.
Agreed on your second part. A part of Trump "superpower" is to introduce a lot of confusion around the bounds, and then convince at least his supporters that he is not really stepping over that where it should have been obvious that he does. So the category "should have been plainly illegal and would have been considered plainly illegal before, but now nobody knows anymore" is likely to be a lot better defined that "still plainly illegal". Moreover, Trump is much more likely to attempt the former than the latter - not because he actually cares about not doing the latter, but because anything he actually does has a tendency to be reclassified from latter to former. Including after the fact - e.g. many of his past actions were moved from the latter category to former one by the Supreme Court presidential immunity decision...
Yes, potentially less that ASI, and security is definitely an issue, But people breaching the security would hoard their access - there will be periodic high-profile spills (e.g. celebrities engaged in sexual activities, or politicians engaged in something inappropriate would be obvious targets), but I'd expect most of the time people would have at least an illusion of privacy.
It would seem that my predictions of how Trump would approach this were pretty spot on... @MattJ I am curious what's your current take on it?