Small nitpick: the percentage of Scots-Irish in the US is far higher than 0.11%. That figure is the percentage who explicitly identified as having solely Scots-Irish descent in a specific census, however the true percentage is probably between 2-10%, so the outlier in your example was actually a really good estimate. I know this was a made-up example but I suppose this is another problem with taking poll results at face value: the stated question and underlying value sometimes track different things. Anyway, that's basically unrelated to the main point about pollsters and maths which is interesting and valid.
On average, experts estimate a 10-20% (?) probability of human extinction due to unaligned AGI this century, making AI Safety not simply the most important issue for future generations, but for present generations as well. (policymakers)
Small nitpick: the percentage of Scots-Irish in the US is far higher than 0.11%. That figure is the percentage who explicitly identified as having solely Scots-Irish descent in a specific census, however the true percentage is probably between 2-10%, so the outlier in your example was actually a really good estimate. I know this was a made-up example but I suppose this is another problem with taking poll results at face value: the stated question and underlying value sometimes track different things. Anyway, that's basically unrelated to the main point about pollsters and maths which is interesting and valid.