Thank you, I feel inclined to accept that for now.
But I'm still not sure, and I'll have to think more about this response at some point.
Edit: I'm still on board with what you're generally saying, but I feel skeptical of one claim:
It seems to me the main ones produce us via base physics, and then because there was an instance in base physics, we also get produced in neighboring civilizations' simulations of what other things base physics might have done in nearby galaxies so as to predict what kind of superintelligent aliens they might be negotiating with before they meet each other.
My intuition tells me there will probably be superior methods of gathering information about superintelligent aliens. To me, it seems like the most obvious reason to create sims would be to respect the past for some bizarre ethical reason, or for some weird kind of entertainment, or even to allow future aliens to temporarily live in a more primitive body. Or perhaps for a reason we have yet to understand.
I don't think any of these scenarios would really change the crux of your argument, but still, can you please justify your claim for my curiosity?
I think I understand your point. I agree with you: the simulation argument relies on the assumption that physics and logic are the same inside and outside the simulation. In my eyes, that means we may either accept the argument's conclusion or discard that assumption. I'm open to either. You seem to be, too—at least at first. Yet, you immediately avoid discarding the assumption for practical reasons:
If we have no grasp on anything outside our virtualized reality, all is lost.
I agree with this statement, and that's my fear. However, you don't seem to be bothered by the fact. Why not? The strangest thing is that I think you agree with my claim: "The simulation argument should increase our credence that our entire understanding of everything is flawed." Yet somehow, that doesn't frighten you. What do you see that I don't see? Practical concerns don't change the territory outside our false world.
Second:
It seems to me the main reason is because we're near a point of high influence in original reality and they want to know what happened - the simulations then are effectively extremely high resolution memories.
That's surely possible, but I can imagine hundreds of other stories. In most of those stories, altruism from within the simulation has no effect on those outside it. Even worse, is that there are some stories in which inflicting pain within a simulation is rewarded outside of it. Here's a possible hypothetical:
Imagine humans in base reality create friendly AI. To respect their past, the humans ask the AI to create tons of sims living in different eras. Since some historical info was lost to history, the sims are slightly different from base reality. Therefore, in each sim, there's a chance AI never becomes aligned. Accounting for this possibility, base reality humans decide to end sims in which AI becomes misaligned and replace those sims with paradise sims where everyone is happy.
In the above scenario, both total and average utilitarianism would recommend intentionally creating misaligned AI so that paradise ensues.
I'm sure you can craft even more plausible stories.
My point is, even if our understanding of physics and logic is correct, I don't see why we ought to privilege the hypothesis that simulations are memories. I also don't see why we ought to privilege the idea that it's in our interest to increase utility within the simulation. Can you please clarify why you're so confident about these notions?
Thank you
I have to say, quila, I'm pleasantly surprised that your response above is both plausible and logically coherent—qualities I couldn't find in any of the Reddit responses. Thank you.
However, I have concerns and questions for you.
Most importantly, I worry that if we're currently in a simulation, physics and even logic could be entirely different from what they appear to be. If all our senses are illusory, why should our false map align with the territory outside the simulation? A story like your "Mutual Anthropic Capture" offers hope: a logically sound hypothesis in which our understanding of physics is true. But why should it be? Believing that a simulation exactly matches reality sounds to me like the privileging the hypothesis fallacy.
By the way, I'm also somewhat skeptical of a couple of your assumptions in Mutual Anthropic Capture. Still, I think it's a good idea overall, and some subtle modifications to the idea would probably make logically sound. I won't bother you about those small issues here, though; I'm more interested in your response to my concern above.
Maybe. But what do you mean by, "you can narrow nothing down other than pure logic"?
I interpret the first part—"you can narrow nothing down"—to mean that the simulation argument doesn't help us make sense of reality. But I don't understand the second part: "other than pure logic." Can you please clarify this statement?