All of BlazeOrangeDeer's Comments + Replies

How else could He do so?

it would be trivially easy for him to arrange a miracle which no other agent could replicate, and for that matter he could allow everybody to see it at once. This would remove all ambiguity and would be a much better way of achieving the goal of making his existence known, or further, of making his will known. If he does indeed use miracles to further his goals, it must be the case that he prioritizes hiding his goals and interventions almost as much as actually achieving them. (after all, nobody can come to an agreement about wh... (read more)

When I stay up too late I am often bewildered by my alarm clock when it wakes me up, unable to figure out what the numbers mean for a while. Nonetheless there must be a part of me that knows what's going on because I always end up setting it again so I have enough time to get ready after sleeping some more.

It doesn't seem like I ever process the word like that (gendered) at all when it's used in a phrase like that, but I suppose other people might experience it differently.

I'm not sure when education becomes an ugh subject, but I don't think it starts out that way.

if you have to memorize 3x7 and 7x3 separately, you're doing it wrong

0Decius
Really? Which one is in the standard form? How long does it take to convert the other into standard form, as opposed to doing the multiplication?

I wasn't claiming it was the whole story, but thanks for giving more info. I maybe should have said that you can't have that situation without changing trajectories but I thought acceleration was a simpler way to summarize.

if you are traveling very fast, the clocks of others are speeding up from your point of view.

This is backwards. Everyone in an inertial frame thinks other peoples clocks are slower. Acceleration is what causes the opposite, e.g. turning the spaceship around to come back

8pragmatist
You're right that Cowen got it backwards, but you're wrong about this: Acceleration is not the cause. The reason the astronauts age less is that the path they follow through space-time corresponds to a smaller proper time than the path followed by people who remain on the Earth, and the proper time along a path is what a clock following that path measures. So it's a geometrical fact about the difference between the two paths that causes the asymmetrical aging, not the acceleration of the astronauts. To make this obvious, it is possible to set up a scenario where another group of astronauts leaves Earth and then returns, accelerating the exact same amount as the first group, but following a path with larger proper time. This second group of astronauts will age more than the first group, even though the accelerations involved were the same. A lot of elementary presentations of relativity identify acceleration as the relevant factor in twin paradox type cases, but this is wrong (or, more charitably, not entirely right).

Why is that creepy instead of just shy?

4buybuydandavis
I certainly sympathize with being shy, as I used to be more shy, and tend to like shy people. But consider the situation from the perspective of the person the shy person has desire for, but won't fully assert the desire for. The shy person seems interested. They're sort of approaching, but they don't make a move that you feel you could reject without seeming presumptuous. You're put in a position where either you escalate, or you live with an uncomfortable and unresolved situation. I think that's a consistent theme across similar senses of creepiness. An unresolved discomfort with someone, perceiving a likely escalation on their part, where the removal of the discomfort at your initiative requires confrontation and potential escalation. There's no crime to shyness, but one should be aware how your behavior affects other people.
Sabiola150

I think people tend not to believe in shyness, unless you're actually blushing. I used to be shy (still am, depending on the situation). But when I talked about it with my classmates one day, it turned out they actually thought I didn't want to associate with them and was aloof because I felt superior to them. Nothing could have been farther from the truth...

Like a cannon from a civil war reenactment?

3Kindly
That is one of the deliberately excluded cases.

The fact that they are practiced by existing cults does not mean they are not beneficial. The main cultish aspect is the fear of exploitation, which hopefully is not present.

edit: if it is, please say so.

-8V_V

Mapmakers deliberately put slight mistakes in their maps so they can tell when someone copies them. If another map has the same mistake, that's very convincing evidence.

Same essay.

It can't do exact relativity but it can do exact general AI? Not to mention that simulating a God that doesn't include relativity will produce the wrong answer.

1private_messaging
It being able to do AI is generally accepted as uncontroversial here. We don't know what would be the shortest way to encode a very good approximation to relativity either - could be straightforward, could be through a singleton intelligence that somehow arises in a more convenient universe and then proceeds to build very good approximations to more elegant universes (given some hint it discovers). I'm an atheist too, it's just that given sufficiently bad choice of the way you represent theories, the shortest hypothesis can involve arbitrarily crazy things just to do something fairly basic (e.g. to make a very very good approximation of real numbers). edit: and relativity is fairly unique in just how elegant it is but how awfully inelegant any simulation of it gets.

So, what you're saying is that the larger number is less likely to be accurate the further it is from the smaller number? Why is that?

Here is a great simulation of two electrons in a wire that looks just like your drawing of a two particle configuration space, and is quite helpful for showing how it moves and what it means about the particles.

In fact, the best indicator of being a masterful cult leader is that no one suspects you! wait...

You can't have a counterpoint to someone's experience. He always found luxury cars to have good cupholders. You can't say he's wrong about that...

3gjm
I said "counterpoint", not "counterexample" or "contradiction". I'm sure paper-machine's experience is just as he says. On the other hand, clearly some other people's experience differs. It's worth noting the latter to give context to the former.

However, make sure that the things you put on your list are things you actually want to do. Otherwise it may take away from the effect.

Or maybe they think that your non-drinking is not a value of yours, but a value of another group that you are choosing over theirs.

I'm not sure why, but now I want Super-induction-turkey to be the LW mascot.

We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales

Their argument is that not only is quantum mechanics ontologically probabilistic, but that only ontologically probabilistic things can be successfully described by probabilities. This is obviously false (not to mention that nothing has actually been shown to be ontologically probabilistic in the first place).

Thus we claim there is no physically verified full

... (read more)
0Transfuturist
I don't think they refer to Bayesian probability as probability. The abstract is ill-defined (according to LessWrong's operational definitions), but their point about ontological probabilities originating in quantum mechanics remains. It, I think, remains intertwined with multiverse theories, as multiverse theories seem to explain probability in a very similar sense, but not in as many words or with such great claims. Also, in a classical simulation, I would not see probability working as it should to be obvious at all. In fact, it's quite difficult to imagine an actually classical system that also contains randomness. It could be that the childhood explanations of physical systems in classical terms while seeing randomness as present is clouding the issue. Whichever way. I don't think it's really worth much argument. Just as a basis in probability theory.

Well, you can run things like physics engines on a computer, and their output is not quantum in any meaningful way (following deterministic rules fairly reliably). It's not very hard to simulate systems where a small uncertainty in initial conditions is magnified very quickly, and this increase in randomness can't really be attributed to quantum effects but can be described very well by probability. This seems to contradict their thesis that all use of probability to describe randomness is justified only by quantum mechanics.

0Transfuturist
I think there seems to be a mismatch of terms involved. Ontological probability, or propensity, and epistemological probability, or uncertainty, are being confused. Reading over this discussion, I have seen claims that something called "chaotic randomness" is at work, where uncertainty results from chaotic systems because the results are so sensitive to initial conditions, but that's not ontological probability at all. The claim of the paper is that all actual randomness, and thus ontological probability, is a result of quantum decoherence and recoherence in both chaotic and simple systems. Uncertainty is uninvolved, though uncertainty in chaotic systems appears to be random. That said, I believe the hypothesis is correct simply because it is the simplest explanation for randomness I've seen.

I'm sorry, I want to be with someone more interesting, someone who just does something wild and lets the chips fall where they may!

I plan to never take any action toward fulfilling any of my hopes and dreams. What could possibly be riskier than that?

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal

1Desrtopa
By that criterion? Suicide.
8CronoDAS
Not having hopes and dreams?

Down voted for unnecessary rot13

6tgb
More importantly IMO than it being unnecessary is that there is no indication of what is going to be behind the rot31 so I don't know whether it's safe to rot13 or not. The first sentence would be best left in plain-text.
-4gwern
For rationality quotes where the meaning is opaque, I like to include an exegesis; but I don't want to make the exegesis trivial to read because then people won't think about it for themselves. I'm sorry if you don't like that.

I think "poorly" in this case meant that it wasn't rated very believable by the judges.

0ChristianKl
Yes, I think that's a bad definition of poorly. The goal of the game isn't only to get high ratings from the judges but to ultimately show people that your beliefs are better than the beliefs of the other side.

If they're saying all sources of entropy are physical, that seems obvious. If they're saying that all uncertainty is quantum, they must not know that chaotic classical simulations exist? Or are they not allowing simulations made by humans o.O

0Transfuturist
Chaotic classical simulations? Could you elaborate?
2Nisan
They're saying all uncertainty is quantum. If you run a computer program whose outputs is very sensitive to its inputs, they'd probably say that the inputs are influenced by quantum phenomena outside the computer. Don't ask me to defend the idea, I think it's incorrect :)

I don't think I've seen a pun thread on lesswrong before... Perhaps it's one of those things that should stay on reddit.

Now that I think about it, wouldn't it be incredibly easy for an AI to blow a human's mind so much that they reconsider everything that they thought they knew? (and once this happened they'd probably be mentally and emotionally compromised, and unlikely to kill the AI) But then it would be limited by inferential distance... but an AI might be incredibly good at introductory explanations as well.

One example: The AI explains the Grand Unified Theory to you in one line, and outlines its key predictions unambiguously.

In fact, any message of huge utility woul... (read more)

1ChristianKl
Many conversations that let a human reconsider everything that they thought they knew induce the feeling of cognitive dissonce. If an AI would induce that feeling in myself I would shut it down. A good idea would probably hide the majority of the conversation that's targeted at changing the belief of the gatekeeper behind other talk.
4handoflixue
Of the two AIs I haven't killed, both relied on producing seemingly huge utility within the first message,so I'd agree with you. The idea of just stunning the human is also nifty, but only really works if you can "hack" the human before they recover, or are providing enough utility that they'll still believe you're friendly afterwards. So basically the two routes thus far are "hack the human" and "provide a huge utility boost" :)

Maybe he means that each interview of a citizen is causally independent, since interviewing one of them won't causally affect the answer of another.

0buybuydandavis
You could analyze the interview as adding a perturbation to people's "pre" responses, and per jsalvatier's comment, say that those perturbations are conditionally independent, as conditioned by the pre responses. But it's the independence of the response that matters, and it's not independent of the stories and folklore. Maybe my confusion can be clarified by showing a case where you have logical dependence but causal independence. I'm not seeing it. Jaynes uses inferential reasoning using backward in time urn draws as his go to example for causal independence but logical dependence. But that still seems a case where there is shared causal dependence on the number and kinds of balls in the urn originally.

Overly dramatic, sounds patronizingly sarcastic

The other question is whether it's helpful to quickly look for obvious answers when there isn't one. The information content of "there is a solution" is actually not only one bit (yes vs no), because the fact that that person told it to you means that they solved it quickly using techniques that they already know about. This usually helps you because you either share much of their knowledge, or have an idea of what things they are knowledgeable about. The correct advice in some other cases might have been "you need to learn something else completely new before you'll get it" or "just stop trying because this problem is really of no value and has no easy answer".

And thus began a society of literal-minded and meticulous cartographers.

5Richard_Kennaway
Best sort.

For good reason; it's the quickest way to become one of the least interesting parts of reddit.

PS: I upvoted lukeprog so that I could comment without penalty and am going to reverse it after I comment. I think that the karma penalty is not a good way to prevent trolls from dominating discussion because trolling is not the only reason that people downvote.

Only on less wrong is a new years retrospective justified using game theory ;)

Society is thankfully not a zero sum game. In many cases, an immigrant having the option to move to a new country is gaining a significant amount of utility, and the citizens of that country do not lose as much as the immigrant gains (they usually even benefit from the immigrant's presence). And in the cases where the immigrant is taking too much, there already laws in place to counteract antisocial behavior such as stealing or fraud. We already have laws to limit bad outcomes, so restrictions on immigration should tend to cause more harm than good by bloc... (read more)

0drethelin
Tragedy of the commons. On the margin, what a first world society loses and what the immigrant gains from coming to a vastly better country are unbalanced in the favor of the immigrant. On the other hand, unrestricted immigration can lead to cultural shifts, more crime, etc. Eg, if I live in a mansion by myself, and I let someone move in from out on the street, I'm a little worse off and they are vastly better off. If I let every homeless person into my mansion, it very quickly becomes its own slum, I am vastly worse off and on margin each homeless person is slightly better off. Not only do I now not have the use of all that space for my own pleasure, I have to deal with more crime, smelly housemates, and drugs and alcohol. Maybe I don't want to raise a family there anymore. It's easy to argue that a nation should take a small loss to its citizens to greatly improve the life for a non-citizen, but a lot harder to argue that it should screw itself over to make life better for a lot of non-citizens.

"Life isn't fair" is one of the least effective arguments I have ever heard, though it is a great example of naturalistic fallacy (this thing is better because it's natural / don't try to mess with the way things are meant to be). I also said why I thought unfairness in this particular case is bad, so I'm down voting.

1Shmi
You said "I find laws that discriminate based on national origin to be unfair, in the sense that they limit good outcomes arbitrarily." Good outcomes for whom? Often a good outcome for one person is a bad outcome for another. What are the reasons you would prefer one person over another?

On immigration, not necessarily limited to the united states. I find laws that discriminate based on national origin to be unfair, in the sense that they limit good outcomes arbitrarily. On the other hand, I do not know of a way to transition to more lenient immigration laws successfully (though I haven't thought about it much and it's far from my areas of interest). I want to know if there are arguments for limiting the rights of immigrants (legal or not) that aren't rooted in excessive self-interest ("they took our jobs!") Or perhaps xenophobia.

0satt
I'm unsure whether you want arguments for limits on (1) immigration in itself, or (2) the rights of immigrants once settled in a new country, but I'll focus on arguments against (1), since they can be turned into arguments against (2) by observing that policies in favour of (2) are likely to encourage (1). I don't know how you draw the line in terms of excessive self-interest or xenophobia so I've set those worries aside in listing these arguments; take 'em or leave 'em. 1. Potential immigrants might be worse than current residents, however you choose to define "worse". (Similar to Eugine_Nier's point.) 2. The sheer rate at which people would immigrate to a given country in the absence of limits might overwhelm that country's resources. 3. The loss of migrants from their home countries might harm those countries. 4. Immigrants themselves might actually be worse off in a different country. 5. Immigrants, regardless of their personal characteristics, might generate a negative reaction from the existing residents, institutions, and/or economy of their destination country. 6. Other countries might suffer negative externalities from immigration even if immigrants, their countries of origin, and their destination country all enjoy a net benefit. 7. Allowing certain immigrants to enter a country could provoke interference or punishment from their home country. 8. Limiting (or outright banning) immigrants from a particular country could be a useful signal or sanction against that country.
6Eugine_Nier
It is clear that some countries are more productive and generally nicer places than others. Why is that? A large part of it is because of the people in those countries. (I'll not get into the question of whether genetic or memetic differences are more important since it's not directly relevant to my point.) Thus it makes sense to restrict immigration from the type of people likely to make the country a worse place to live.
-3Shmi
What is this "fair" thing? Life isn't fair. The governments are responsible to the citizens a single country, not the whole world, so they are unfair to non-citizens when it makes sense economically or politically. The immigration laws will be relaxed once it's in the interests of the country to attract more immigrants and tighten when there are enough. Happens all the time all over the world. You can pretend that this is about human rights, but it's really economics, with a healthy dose of politics.

I think he means multiply once for each piece of evidence, not each hypothesis.

Also for showing me what Lesswrong's version of r/circlejerk looks like

-3wedrifid
If "circlejerk" meant "Creative expression of several posts worth of core lesswrong rationality material in an easy to read, relaxed and enjoyable format" rather than "A word for male group masturbation used in metaphorical sense" then I wouldn't dismiss your claim as obnoxious and inaccurate.

Remember that the "soul" you are giving up isn't really the Cartesian dualist version. It matches better to certain emotional or social states that many people prefer to experience.

And the biologist says, "guys, that's a dog"

"Bias" can include those flaws, especially how the word is used on this site

4Omegaile
"Bias" has a strict definition. Not all errors are biases. One can clearly be wrong and rational, for example, by not gathering enough information (laziness, or lack of time...).

I think it meant "not made of smaller parts", for example ghosts would be disembodied consciousnesses not made of any atoms. I thought this was incredibly unlikely.

-3Eugine_Nier
For some types of entities it's not clear what that means. For example, are particles made of wave functions, or are wave functions made of particles.

I'm really enjoying Coheed and Cambria's new album (the second part is releasing in early February), though it may not be for everyone. Their music is an interesting mix of pop-oriented prog rock (with some emo and metal) and it comes with a sci-fi story along with each album. It might be better to listen to their albums chronologically, I rank the albums [1,2,4,3,6,5] in terms of how much I enjoy listening to them most to least.

I wouldn't say "none". Maybe half of the album seemed to be up to the Muse standard, if a little over-the-top. But the dubstep parts really didn't impress.

0RobertLumley
By "music" I really meant some of my favorite songs of theirs. I tend to rate my favorite songs by an artist and just listen to rated music. What I was trying to convey was that none of the songs from The Second Law got rated.

That seems a bit extreme. Maybe you have that condition that makes it difficult do distinguish faces?

0OrphanWilde
I have tended to associate with distinctive people, and prefer distinctiveness to attractiveness. Entirely possible.

Making a religion of rationality, it turns out, can lead some very smart people to embrace some insane-sounding ideas.

Also not sure quite what this means. Sounds negative.

This argument itself could be steel-manned to something reasonable... but unfortunately there are also the connotations, approximately: "larger than average amount of rationality is very harmful".

Also:

"When [Kurzweil] came on stage, it was definitely a Jesus moment," said Tom Rausch, a first time attendee

Well, thank you for further associating rationality with religion, just because of one remark one first-time attendee said. The more associations between rationality and religion you make, the better your readers will remember them!... (read more)

0Manfred
It means ADBOC :P

Yeah, I don't remember hearing anything about any AI work SI has done with Bayes Theorem. It's definitely used in the field though.

I've heard before that if you count denominations, catholics have the most and former catholics are more numerous than any other individual religious organization.

At first glance it seems his definition of consciousness works better as a definition of some subset of intelligence, and not the common concept of consciousness. Usually "consciousness" implies self-awareness more than straight information processing.

I wouldn't say that for something at just over 50%, i'd say "will probably". An unqualified statement implies confidence.

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