Took the survey and actually liked it :)
Why didn't Eliezer give a talk?
A guy who works for a book publisher once told me that they pay about 8 euro's per 1000 words to a good translator for books they translate from foreign languages. So by this calculation you can have a 100.000 words text translated in Romanian for 800 euros.
May the Force be with you! :)
Do you really need those 30 minutes of hitting the snooze button? Why not sleep instead and wake up after the first alarm? I tried both and I'm much better off with the latter.
I think there is something wrong with your analogy with the fire. The thing is that you cannot accidentally or purposefully burn all the people in the world or the vast majority of them by setting fire to them, but with a virus like the one Luke is talking about you can kill most people.
Yes, both a knife and an atomic bomb can kill 100.000 people. It is just way easier to do it with the atomic bomb. That is why everybody can have a knife but only a handful of people can "have" an atomic bomb. Imagine what the risks would be if we would give virtually everybody who would be interested, all the instructions on how to build a weapon 100 times more dangerous than an atomic bomb (like a highly contagious deadly virus).
I think it is very important to keep in mind that it is not very relevant to judge if someone is good at predicting stuff simply by dividing all the predictions made by the ones that turned out to be correct.
I predict that tomorrow will by Friday. Given that today it is Thursday, that's not so impressive. So my point is that it is more important to look at how difficult to make was that prediction and what the reasoning behind it is.
And I would also look and see if I can find improvements in the predictions that are made, if the person making the predictions actually learns something from the mistakes that he/she made in the past and applies the things that are learned to the new predictions he/she makes from that point on.
This is really helpful if it actually works. Thank you!
Hello there people of LessWrong. I'm a 24 years old dude from a small country called Romania who has been reading stuff on this site since 2010 when Luke Muehlhauser started linking here. I'm a member of Mensa and got a B.A. in Management.
I have to admit that there are more things that interest me than there is time for me to study them so I can't really say I'm an expert in anything, I just know a lot of things better than most other people know them. That's not very impressive I guess but I hope that in 5 years from now there will be at least one think I know or do at an expert level.
My plan is to start my own company in the next few years and I think I know how to make politics to actually work. I love defining rationality as winning as you guys do and I think that I win more now, after reading articles on this website. Hopefully with time I might be able to contribute to the community too, there are some things that might just make LessWrong better.
Wow, this is such a great news for me. I listen to a lot of lectures and podcasts.