Have you seen Jacob Steinhardt's article https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqNYbJhtidjRXSi/what-will-gpt-2030-look-like ? It seems like his prediction for a 2030 AI would already meet the threshold for being a transformative AI, at least in aspects not relating to robotics. But you put this at less than 1% likely at a much longer timescale. What do you think of that writeup, where do you disagree, and are there any places where you might consider recalibrating?
Have you seen Jacob Steinhardt's article https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqNYbJhtidjRXSi/what-will-gpt-2030-look-like ? It seems like his prediction for a 2030 AI would already meet the threshold for being a transformative AI, at least in aspects not relating to robotics. But you put this at less than 1% likely at a much longer timescale. What do you think of that writeup, where do you disagree, and are there any places where you might consider recalibrating?