All of Czynski's Comments + Replies

Czynski30

A myth contained in the classical Jewish text Pirkei Avot states that the first pair of tongs was created by God right before God rested on the Seventh Day. The reasoning is that a blacksmith must use a pair of tongs in order to fashion a new pair of tongs. Accordingly, God must have provided humankind with the first pair of tongs.

2Screwtape
I laughed, thank you for the excellent example.
Czynski10

Trying this again I think the question sets need a little work.

Czynski*62

But Doctor, I am Kaufman!

EDIT: Oh wait, he linked this joke himself. I feel less clever now.

Czynski10

As usual after Solstice, I had an urge to write about Solstice, in this case a speech I may someday give.

Czynski10

Tried to leave this as a review comment, which is blocked:

Even with the benefit of hindsight proving that Trump could and would get reelected, this still looks just as badly-constructed as it did at the time. This was an argument based in fear and rationalization, not a clear-eyed prediction of the future. The bottom line was written first.

Czynski10

Editing Essays into Solstice Speeches: Standing offer: if you have a speech to give at Solstice or other rationalist event, message me and I'll look at your script and/or video call you to critique your performance and help

Czynski10

Ask Me For Help

Standing offer: if you have a speech to give at Solstice or other rationalist event, message me and I'll look at your script and/or video call you to critique your performance and help

Czynski51

I don't have much understanding of current AI discussions and it's possible those are somewhat better/less advanced a case of rot.

Those same psychological reasons indicate that anything which is actual dissent will be interpreted as incivility. This has happened here and is happening as we speak. It was one of the significant causes of SBF. It's significantly responsible for the rise of woo among rationalists, though my sense is that that's started to recede (years later). It's why EA as a movement seems to be mostly useless at this point and coasting on g... (read more)

Czynski10

I still prefer the ones I see there to what I see on LW. Lower quantity higher value.

Czynski*4-23

Currently no great alternatives exist because LW killed them. The quality of the comment section on SSC and most other rationalist blogs I was following got much worse when LW was rebooted (and killed several of them), and initially it looked like LW was an improvement, but over time the structural flaws killed it.

I still see much better comments on individual blogs - Zvi, Sarah Constantin, Elizabeth vN, etc. - than on LessWrong. Some community Discords are pretty good, though they are small walled gardens; rationalist Tumblr has, surprisingly, gotten acti... (read more)

8Seth Herd
So I need to finally get on Tumblr, eh? I should've specified that I really mostly care about AI alignment and strategy discussions. The rationalism stuff is fun and sometimes useful, but a far lower priority. I don't expect to change your mind, so I'll keep this brief and for general reference. When I say LessWrong is the best source of discussion, I mean something different than the sum of value of comments. I mean that people often engage in depth with those who disagree with them in important ways. It's still entirely possible that we're experiencing groupthink in important ways. But there is a fair amount of engagement with opposing viewpoints when they're both relatively well-informed about the discourse and fairly polite. I think the value of keeping discourse not just civil but actively pleasant is easy to underestimate. Discussions that turn into unpleasant debates because the participants are irritated with each other don't seem to get very far. And there are good psychological reasons to expect that. I'm also curious where you see LW as experiencing the most groupthink. I'd like to correct for it.
6Elizabeth
Comments on my own blog are almost non existent, all the interesting discussion happens on LW and Twitter. (Full disclosure: am technically on mod team and have deep social ties to the core team)
Czynski22-30

I see much more value in Lighthaven than in the rest of the activity of Lightcone.

I wish Lightcone would split into two (or even three) organizations, as I would unequivocally endorse donating to Lighthaven and recommend it to others, vs. LessWrong where I'm not at all confident it's net positive over blogs and Substacks, and the grantmaking infastructure and other meta which is highly uncertain and probably highly replaceable.

All of the analysis of the impact of new LessWrong is misleading at best; it is assuming that volume on LessWrong is good in itself... (read more)

4Vaniver
I think it's hard to evaluate the counterfactual where I made a blog earlier, but I think I always found the built-in audience of LessWrong significantly motivating, and never made my own blog in part because I could just post everything here. (There's some stuff that ends up on my Tumblr or w/e instead of LW, even after ShortForm, but almost all of the nonfiction ended up here.)
Seth Herd2221

Hm, I was going to say I'd like LW distinguished from lighthaven so I could give more to LW.

The things you note about encouraging groupthink are good points. They should be addressed.

But the average quality of discussion here cannot be matched anywhere else. Non-voting comment systems like X and Slate Star Codex are too disorganized to consistently find the real in-depth discussions. Subreddits do not have the quality of community to make the comment voting work well. (They either have too few experts to sustain a conversation, or too many novices voting o... (read more)

Czynski20

That was true this week, but the first time I attended (the 12th) I believe it wasn't, I arrived at what I think was 6:20-6:25 and found everything had already started.

6Ben Pace
I've updated future posts to have start time at 6:30 and doors open at 6pm.
Czynski3-1

Based on my prior experience running meetups, a 15m gap between 'doors open' and starting the discussion is too short. 30m is the practical minimum; I prefer 45-60m because I optimize for low barrier to entry (as a means of being welcoming).

I also find this to be a significant barrier in participating myself, as targeting a fifteen-minute window for arrival is usually beyond my planning abilities unless I have something else with a hard end time within the previous half-hour.

3Ben Pace
Oh interesting, thanks for the feedback. I think I illusion-of-transparency'd that people would feel fine about arriving in the 6:15-6:30 window. In my head the group discussions start at about 6:30. I'll make a note to update the description hopefully for next time.
Czynski32

The amount of empty space where the audience understands what's going on and nothing new or exciting is happening is much, much higher in 60s-70s film and TV. Pacing is an art, and that art has improved drastically in the last half-century.

Standards, also, were lower, though I'm more confident in this for television. In the 90s, to get kids to be interested in a science show you needed Bill Nye. In the 60s, doing ordinary high-school science projects with no showmanship whatsoever was wildly popular because it was on television and this was inherently novel and fascinating. (This show actually existed.)

Czynski*30

A man who is always asking 'Is what I do worth while?' and 'Am I the right person to do it?' will always be ineffective himself and a discouragement to others.

-- G.H. Hardy, A Mathematician's Apology

Czynski10

a belief is only really worthwhile if you could, in principle, be persuaded to believe otherwise

There's a point to be made here about why 'unconditional love' is unsatisfying to the extent the description as 'unconditional' is accurate.

Czynski10

...Oh, my mistake, it looked like they were posted a lot later than that and the ~skipped one made that look confirmed. Usually-a-week ahead is plenty of time and I'm sorry I said anything.

Czynski1-2

Could you please announce these further in advance? Especially given the reading required beforehand it's inconvenient and honestly seems a little inconsiderate.

2Ben Pace
We're trying to! I normally publish next week's at the end of the meetup, but this week I was sick (and Aella was out of town). Next week's is up, I've drafted the week after's and picked the readings for the week after that, so we should be on-time for the next few.
Czynski10

That's a fascinating approach to characterization. What do you do, have the actors all read the appendix before they start rehearsals?

2CronoDAS
I have no idea!
Czynski10

This is apparently from a play, Man and Superman, which I have never previously heard of, let alone read or seen. I suspect that, much like Oscar Wilde's plays, it is at least as much a vehicle for witty epigrams as it is an actual performance or plot.

CronoDAS100

The quote is from an appendix that consists entirely of epigrams that are attributed to one of the characters in the play - it's not actually part of the play as performed. (Shaw was tired of "smart" characters in plays that don't actually do anything to show that they're smart so he wrote it to justify the character's asserted intelligence.)

Czynski90

The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.

-- George Bernard Shaw, epigram

(Inspired by part of Superintelligences will not spare Earth sunlight)

1Czynski
This is apparently from a play, Man and Superman, which I have never previously heard of, let alone read or seen. I suspect that, much like Oscar Wilde's plays, it is at least as much a vehicle for witty epigrams as it is an actual performance or plot.
Czynski20

For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be King; and there ought to be no other. But lest any ill use should afterwards arise, let the crown at the conclusion of the ceremony be demolished, and scattered among the people whose right it is.

-- Thomas Paine, Common Sense, demonstrating the Virtue of The Void

Czynski140

The most potent way to sacrifice your life has always been to do so one day at a time.

-- BoneyM, Divided Loyalties

Czynski10

I currently slightly prefer an  but that's pending further thought and discussion.

missing thought in the footnotes

Czynski42

We knew they were experimenting with synthetic data. We didn't know they were succeeding.

Czynski10

Not sure whether to add these in, but a number of local Google calendars theoretically exist: https://calendar.google.com/calendar/render?cid=bayarearationality%40gmail.com&cid=f6qs8c387dhlounnbqg6lbv3b0%40group.calendar.google.com&cid=94j0drsqgj43nkekg8968b3uo4%40group.calendar.google.com&cid=8hq2d2indjps3vr64l96e9okt4%40group.calendar.google.com&cid=theberkeleyreach%40gmail.com

This includes Berkeley REACH (defunct), CFAR Public Events (defunct locally AFAIK), EA Events (superseded by Luma calendar?), LW Meetups (unknown but blank), and Ra... (read more)

1Lucie Philippon
I expect it could be mildly valuable to index the previously existing calendars and give the best current alternative. I don't think it will bring much though.
Czynski10

Updated to reflect the new, less regular schedule (and change of weekday) since the half-year mark.

Czynski10

That's not what tribalism means.

1Blake
Why isn’t it? Our people form tribes over shared intellectual interests like others form tribes over shared affinity for a sports team.
Czynski10

I think at normal times (when it's not filled with MATS or a con) it's possible to rent coworking space at Lighthaven? I haven't actually tried myself.

3Raemon
I think it's more like "it's by default not available for public or semi-public coworking, but occasionally we have periods that are explicitly 'now is a coworking time'".
Czynski10

Our New Orleans Rat group grows on tribalistic calls to action. “Donate to Global Health Initiatives,” “Do Art,” “Learn About AI.”

If you consider those tribalistic calls to action, I'm not sure any of you are doing evidence-based thinking in the first place. I suppose if the damage is already done, it will not make anything worse if your specific group engages in politics.

1Blake
Most people who attend our meetings just want to find folks who share their interests. That is the tribalistic impulse I'm referencing.
Czynski*421

There is basically no method of engaging with politics worse than backing a national candidate. It has tiny impact even if successful, is the most aggressively tribalism-infected, and is incredibly hard to say anything novel.

If you must get involved in politics, it should be local, issue-based, and unaffiliated with LW or rationalism. It is far more effective to lobby on issues than for candidates, it is far more effective to support local candidates than national, and there is minimal upside and enormous downside to having any of your political efforts tied with the 'brand' of rationalism or LW.

-3Blake
Agreed. I don’t think I’m tying our event with the LW or Rat brand. I am simply saying more rats need to support a candidate. This is a local event in which I will push my anti-tribalism agenda. My bet is many who attend are not interested in being tribalistic. Myself and those I know who are behind Kamala are largely behind her because we appreciate evidence-based thinking, which Donald Trump has worked against.
Czynski04

The track record for attempts to turn tribalism into evidence-based thinking is very poor. The result, almost always, is to turn the evidence-based thinking into tribalism.

2Blake
Are you saying we shouldn’t even attempt to turn tribalistic thinkers into evidence based thinkers? My own experience at that has been rather successful. Our New Orleans Rat group grows on tribalistic calls to action. “Donate to Global Health Initiatives,” “Do Art,” “Learn About AI.” At the events we tend to question the foundation of having those interests, working to better stances on the interests we keep or reject. Example: We led a multipart series on EA for people who were already interested in EA. The series was led by someone who was very much an EA. The group mostly questioned why that person was an EA. The result: We continue to support several causes, such as Farm Animal Welfare, and ignore other causes, such as AI Doom, that didn’t seem to have enough evidence we found compelling. Very few people I meet actually want to be limited by the scope of a tribe. Desire for autonomy prevails and the group gains deeper investment as we promote evidence-based thinking. I’m not dumb to the fact that this process is creating new tribalistic dynamics, but hopefully we have better reasons for why we do what we do. I will probably open our Kamala Harris event with the question: “Why support a candidate?” I will also use this event as motivation to look into pros and cons with supporting a candidate, then use future events as a way to validate that evidence I’ve found. Please post any research around supporting a candidate I should look at!
Czynski10

Permanently changed to Wednesdays, but forgot that was in the group description; now fixed. There is a Manifold-associated event, Taco Tuesdays, running in SF, and I decided I'd rather stop scheduling against it.

Czynski50

It would be nice to move this to a standalone website like the old Bay Rationality site. I've been considering that for months and dragging my feet about asking for funding to host it; I'd also like to contact whoever used to run it, check whether anything complicated brought it down, and maybe just yoink their codebase and update the content. I don't know who that was, though.

8Screwtape
Looks like it passed hands and the holder forgot to re-register the domain, I've sniped the domain and stuck a copy of this post on there for now. DMing you with more details.
Czynski30

Whoops, fixed.

Someday the site will finish their API and document it, and I'll be able to automate this like I do everything else about posting meetups. But probably not this side of the Singulariy at current rates.

Czynski10

Facing away from the cars approaching works better IME.

Czynski*10

Entirely separate from concerns about the site, I think your notion of the theme for a midsummer ritual is wrong.

If you look at midsummer rituals that have memetic fitness (traditions that lasted, or in neopaganism's case that stuck weirdly quickly), most of them are sunset rituals. Things that happen at night on the shortest nights of the year, and dwell on themes of darkness. Ghost stories, things like that.

Assuming, as I think we clearly should, that that's not a coincidence, a ritual that resonates for summer solstice should be aimed in a similar direc... (read more)

Czynski*22

I heard about this being planned earlier this year, and after about five minutes with Google Maps I concluded that it was an unsalvageably terrible idea. Unsalvageable because the core problem is Angel Island.

It takes a minimum of 75 minutes from central SF or 2h from the East Bay to travel, each way. And that's if the ferry schedule is convenient, which it will not be; the ferries are spread out far too infrequently to be able to attend conveniently. For those many who don't drive, it's technically public transit accessible, but double those times.

I have ... (read more)

Czynski10

Rescheduled - skipped it on the 9th for the eclipse, and couldn't do the original plan for the 23rd (park bocce, probably coming in a future month)

Czynski10

But you can't change it for anyone else's view, which is the important thing.

1habryka
I don't know whether metachirality was thinking of a setting for authors or for commenters. What makes you confident he was talking about the author version?
Czynski3-9

Isn't this post describing the replication attempt?

3George3d6
I would say this is not enough data to close the market, I'd need some 3rd party self-experimenters to replicate it.
Czynski114

You should try doing the next version as an adversarial collaboration.

2George3d6
With whom ?

Clarification:

"Steam" is one possible opposite of Slack. I sketch a speculative view of steam as a third 'cognitive currency' almost like probability and utility.

Are 'probability' and 'utility' meant to be the other two cognitive currencies? Or is it 'Slack', and if so which is the third?

5abramdemski
I intended the three to be probability and utility and steam, but it might make more sense to categorize things in other ways. While I still think there might be something more interesting here, I nowadays mainly think of Steam as the probability distribution over future actions and action-related concepts. This makes Steam an epistemic object, like any other belief, but with more normative/instrumental content because it's beliefs about actions, and because there will be a lot of FixDT stuff going on in such beliefs. Kickstarter / "belief-in" dynamics also seem extremely relevant.

This was fairly untested but went very well!

I'll do a better writeup as a Meetup In a Box later, but this is how it went:

For each set, 10m writing things down, then ?20m? discussing, then next set

List a few things that went very well this year. (3-5)

List a few things that went very badly this year. (3-5)

If you were to 80/20 your last year, which 20% gave the 80% you valued most?

If someone looked at your actions for the last year, what would they think your priorities were?

What did you intend your priorities to be?

Do you want to make a

... (read more)

Is there a graph of solar efficiency (fraction of energy kept in light -> electricity conversion) for solar tech that's deployed at scale? https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html exists for research models but I'm unsure of any for industrial-scale.

Rescheduled to the end of the month because I am sick again. Guess maybe I should have worn a mask to the airport in travel season.

Imo this comment is lowering the quality of the discourse. Like, if I steelman and expand what you're saying, it seems like you're trying to say something like "this response is pinging a deceptiveness-heuristic that I can't quite put my finger on". That phrasing adds information, and would prompt other commenters to evaluate and either add evidence of deceptiveness, or tell you you're false-positiving, or something like that. But your actual phrasing doesn't do that, it's basically name calling.

So, mod note: I strong-downvoted your comment and decided to leave it at that. Consider yourself frowned at.

Six weeks, once, with significant counterpressure exerted against her doing so is confirmation of the original claim, not counterevidence.

4KatWoods
I'm having trouble following your logic. Ben's post said "they were not able to live apart from the family unit while they worked with them" and we showed evidence that Alice lived apart from us ~50% of the time she worked for us. Are you disputing when Alice and Ben both said she visited her family? Has Alice disputed this, saying that she didn't actually live and work apart from us from that time?  She didn't live apart once but twice. She also lived/worked separately in the FTX condos (which we did not live in). And if you're counting, the time spent apart seems relevant. It was for ~50% of the entire time she worked for us. Not scraps she had to beg for.  In both cases, she never "asked" to leave. She just informed us. Because it wasn't our place to give "permission", so framing this as something that she only did at great cost to her is incorrect.  Or are you referring to the one sentence where they didn't technically say they weren't allowed to leave. Where they said "Alice and Chloe report that they were advised not to spend time with ‘low value people’, including their families, romantic partners, and anyone local to where they were staying, with the exception of guests/visitors that Nonlinear invited. Alice and Chloe report this made them very socially dependent on Kat/Emerson/Drew and otherwise very isolated." Now, if you read this very carefully, technically it does just say they were "advised" to not spend time with others. But it follows up by saying that "this made them very socially dependent on Kat/Emerson/Drew and otherwise very isolated". This very clearly implies that it was not that once we recommended that Alice postpone visiting her family to have impact. It is saying they were isolated and it clearly implies that it's because we told them to not spend time with others.  This couldn't be the case if it wasn't for the fact that we actually made them isolated. Which is indeed disproven by showing many text messages and screenshots of them ha

Thank you for your response. That seems a tendentious reading to me, but I'm happy to leave it at that.

EDIT: Actually, given the level of support the above comment is getting, I'd appreciate elaboration from someone. The straightforward reading of "They were not able to live apart from the family unit while they worked with them" is that during the whole duration of working with the family unit, they were required to live in the same location. Are people honestly claiming that that sentence remains true as written if she spent fully a third of her time working for them living apart from them? I don't see where people are coming from on this at all.

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