Declan Molony

"If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking." - Leslie Lamport

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No, I wasn't using a third-party. I was viewing it on PC.

It looks normal today and I'm seeing paragraph breaks now.

I enjoy reading your posts, but I skip over the 300-word blocks of text like the following. Without new paragraphs or white space, it's too dense for me to want to read them. 

Thinking about AI impacts down the line without robotics seems to me like thinking about the steam engine without railroads, or computers without spreadsheets. You can talk about that if you want, but it’s not the question we should be asking. And even then, I expect more – for example I asked Claude about automating 80% of non-physical tasks, and it estimated about 5.5% additional GDP growth per year. Another way of thinking about Dean Ball’s growth estimate is that in 20 years of having access to this, that would roughly turn Portugal into the Netherlands, or China into Russia. Does that seem plausible? If you make a sufficient number of the pessimistic objections on top of each other, where we stall out before ASI and have widespread diffusion bottlenecks and robotics proves mostly unsolvable without ASI, I suppose you could get to 2% a year scenario. But I certainly wouldn’t call that wildly optimistic. I will reiterate my position that various forms of ‘intelligence only goes so far’ are almost entirely a Skill Issue, certainly over a decade-long time horizon and at the margins discussed here, amounting to Intelligence Denialism. The ASI cuts through everything. And yes, physical actions take non-zero time, but that’s being taken into account, future automated processes can go remarkably quickly even in the physical realm, and a lot of claims of ‘you can only know [X] by running a physical experiment’ are very wrong, again a Skill Issue. On the decreasing marginal value of goods, I think this is very much a ‘dreamed of in your philosophy’ issue, or perhaps it is definitional. I very much doubt that the physical limits kick in that close to where we are now, even if in important senses our basic human needs are already being met.

<🔔 dingggggggggggg 🔔>

A unique writing motif that I haven't seen before. I think this is cool for a post related to meditation!

3/10/2025 Author’s note: It’s been a year since I started posting on LessWrong. In that time, I’ve become a better writer. This was my first LessWrong post. I’ve rewritten this post more concisely here. I’m leaving up this original version to showcase my improvement.

Costco's brand:
Kirkland Signature Organic Creamy Peanut Butter USA Valencia Peanuts, 28  Ounces

It's only two ingredients: peanuts and salt.

I'm not sure how I feel about seed oils generally, but I know they're higher in Omega-6 fatty acids. From the NIH

Omega-3s are utilized by the body to resolve and lower inflammation, whereas omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids are primarily used for increasing inflammation. Thus, the rise in the omega-6/3 ratio over the past 100 years may be driving chronic low-grade inflammatory conditions including autoimmune diseases, allergies and asthma.

I have considered the powdered option, but given my inflammation, it's possible I have a minor allergy. I'm going to take a break for a while.

 

Assuming you're serious about the psychological impact of removing all peanut butter products

^Nope, I'm exaggerating. I gave this post a "humor" tag and wrote it to laugh at myself.

I’m legitimately confused about using an LLM to generate actual text

LLMs are in their nascent form with limited capabilities. As they continue to develop, they'll likely become more adept at creating large cohesive narratives. 

 

I have a soft rule that I never upload the actual text of my book for feedback. I keep the actual text of the book out of the LLM’s memory. 

I’m not sure where that fits in your model. 

It's interesting that you have this soft rule. Why? Are you worried that it'll steal your ideas? Or possibly concerned that it'll strip you of the feeling of authorship?

if someone wrote a book while holding a pen with their toes while doing a headstand, it's not a good signal that the book will be of any interest to you.

Agreed, though I would definitely want to meet this insane person.

After writing his first 100-page short story, my brother realized that he'd become a better writer over the course of creating it. The beginning chapters therefore needed more rewriting than the ending chapters.

He just finished writing his first novel this week (and is getting ready to pitch it to publishers). Because of his prior writing experience, this story needed less overall editing as he has developed his writing style.

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