All of dkirmani's Comments + Replies
systems that have a tendency to evolve towards a narrow target configuration set when started from any point within a broader basin of attraction, and continue to do so despite perturbations.
When determining whether a system "optimizes" in practice, the heavy lifting is done by the degree to which the set of states that the system evolves toward -- the suspected "target set" -- feels like it forms a natural class to the observer.
The issue here is that what the observer considers "a natural class" is informed by the data-distribution that the observer has previously been exposed to.
Whether or not an axis is "useful" depends on your utility function.
If you only care about compressing certain books from The Library of Babel, then "general optimality" is real — but if you value them all equally, then "general optimality" is fake.
When real, the meaning of "general optimality" depends on which books you deem worthy of consideration.
Within the scope of an analysis whose consideration is restricted to the cluster of sequences typical to the Internet, the term "general optimality" may be usefully applied to a predictive model. Such analysis ...
Yeah. Here's an excerpt from Antifragile by Taleb:
One can make a list of medications that came Black Swan–style from serendipity and compare it to the list of medications that came from design. I was about to embark on such a list until I realized that the notable exceptions, that is, drugs that were discovered in a teleological manner, are too few—mostly AZT, AIDS drugs.
This was kinda a "holy shit" moment
Publicly noting that I had a similar moment recently; perhaps we listened to the same podcast.
I resent the implication that I need to "read the literature" or "do my homework" before I can meaningfully contribute to a problem of this sort.
The title of my post is "how 2 tell if ur input is out of distribution given only model weights". That is, given just the model, how can you tell which inputs the model "expects" more? I don't think any of the resources you refer to are particularly helpful there.
Your paper list consists of six arXiv papers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
Paper 1 requires you to bring a dataset.
...We propose leveraging [diverse image and text]
Obtaining an Adderall prescription.
I use Done, and can recommend messaging their support to switch you to RxOutreach (a service that mails you your medication) if you live in an area with Adderall shortages, like, say, the Bay Area.
Does “Kickstarter but they refund you if the project doesn’t meet its goal” exist? I think not — that might get you some of the gains of a DAC platform.
Also, what does PayPal’s TOS say about this? I seriously considered building something similar, and Stripe only approves “crowdfunding” if you have their written approval.
If Guyenet is right that olfactory/taste signals are critical to the maintenance of obesity, then we should expect people who take their meals exclusively through feeding tubes to be obese at rates well below baseline.
I’m also somewhat confused about why this works
Abstraction is about what information you throw away. For a ReLU activation function, all negative inputs are mapped to zero -- you lose information there, in a way that you don't when applying a linear transformation.
Imagine your model (or a submodule thereof) as a mapping from one vector space to another. In order to focus on the features relevant to the questions you care about (is the image a truck, is it a lizard, ...) you throw away information that is not relevant to these questions -- you give it le...
Is there idea that pictures with texta drawn over them are out of distribution?
Yes, the idea is that images that have been taken with a camera were present in the training set, whereas images that were taken with a camera and then scribbled on in GIMP were not.
If you refer to section 4.2 in the paper that leogao linked, those authors also use "corrupted input detection" to benchmark their method. You're also welcome to try it on your own images -- to run the code you just have to install the pip dependencies and then use paths to your own files. (If you uncomment the block at the bottom, you can run it off your webcam in real-time!)
We introduced the concept of the space of models in terms of optimization and motivated the utility of gradients as a distance measure in the space of model that corresponds to the required amount of adjustment to model parameters to properly represent given inputs.
Looks kinda similar, I guess. But their methods require you to know what the labels are, they require you to do backprop, they require you to know the loss function of your model, and it looks like their methods wouldn't work on arbitrarily-specified submodules of a given model, only the mode...
Yep, but:
given only model weights
Also, the cossim-based approach should work on arbitrary submodules of a given model! Also it's fast!
often rely on skills that aren't generally included in "intelligence", like how fast and precise you can move your fingers
That's a funny example considering that (negative one times a type of) reaction time is correlated with measures of g-factor at about .
This seems an important point. I have a measured IQ of around 145 (or at least as last measured maybe 15 years ago when I was in my 20s). My reaction times are also unusually slow. Some IQ tests are timed. My score would come in a full 15 points lower (one standard deviation) on timed tests.
You might complain this is just an artifact of the testing protocol, but I think there's something real there. In everyday life I'm a lot smarter (e.g. come up with better ideas) when I can sit and think for a while. When I have to "think on my feet" I'm considerably du...
From Daniel Ingram's Mastering the Core Teachings of the Buddha (slatestarcodex review):
...Immediately after a physical sensation arises and passes is a discrete pulse of reality that is the mental knowing of that physical sensation, here referred to as “mental consciousness” (as contrasted with the problematic concept of “awareness” in Part Five). By physical sensations I mean the five senses of seeing, hearing, smelling, tasting, and touching, and I guess you could add some proprioceptive, other extended sensate abilities and perhaps a few others, but for
Advertisements on Lesswrong (like lsusr's now-deleted "Want To Hire Me?" post) are good, because they let the users of this site conduct mutually-beneficial trade.
I disagree with Ben Pace in the sibling comment; advertisements should be top-level posts, because any other kind of post won't get many eyeballs on it. If users don't find the advertised proposition useful, if the post is deceptive or annoying, then they should simply downvote the ad.
I noticed this happening with goose.ai's API as well, using the gpt-neox model, which suggests that the cause of the nondeterminism isn't unique to OpenAI's setup.
Even if only a single person's values are extrapolated, I think things would still be basically fine. While power corrupts, it takes time do so. Value lock-in at the moment of creation of the AI prevents it from tracking (what would be the) power-warped values of its creator.
I'm not so sure! Some of my best work was done from the ages of 15-16. (I am currently 19.)
Here's an idea for a decision procedure:
- Narrow it down to a shortlist of 2-20 video ideas that you like
- For each video, create a conditional prediction market on Manifold with the resolution criterion "if made, would this video get over X views/likes/hours of watch-time", for some constant threshold X
- Make the video the market likes the most
- Resolve the appropriate market
[copying the reply here because I don't like looking at the facebook popup]
(I usually do agree with Scott Alexander on almost everything, so it's only when he says something I particularly disagree with that I ever bother to broadcast it. Don't let that selection bias give you a misleading picture of our degree of general agreement. #long)
I think Scott Alexander is wrong that we should regret our collective failure to invest early in cryptocurrency. This is very low on my list of things to kick ourselves about. I do not consider it one of my life's regrets...
Yes. From the same comment:
Spend a lot of money on ad campaigns and lobbying, and get {New Hampshire/Nevada/Wyoming/Florida} to nullify whatever federal anti-gambling laws exist, and carve out a safe haven for a serious prediction market (which does not currently exist).
And:
...You could alternatively just fund the development of a serious prediction market on the Ethereum blockchain, but I'm not as sure about this path, as the gains one could get might be considered "illegal". Also, a fully legalized prediction market could rely on courts to arbitrate m
Agreed. To quote myself like some kind of asshole:
In order for a prediction market to be "serious", it has to allow epistemically rational people to get very very rich (in fiat currency) without going to jail, and it has to allow anyone to create and arbitrate a binary prediction market for a small fee. Such a platform does not currently exist.
Thanks!
might be able to find a better voice synthesizer that can be a bit more engaging (not sure if TikTok supplies this)
Don't think I can do this that easily. I'm currently calling Amazon Polly, AWS' TTS service, from a python script I wrote to render these videos. Tiktok does supply an (imo) annoying-sounding female TTS voice, but that's off the table since I would have to enter all the text manually on my phone.
experimentation is king.
I could use Amazon's Mechanical Turk to run low-cost focus groups.
The "anti-zoomer" sentiment is partially "anti-my-younger-self" sentiment. I, personally, had to expend a good deal of effort to improve my attention span, wean myself off of social media, and reclaim whole hours of my day. I'm frustrated because I know that more is possible.
I fail to see how this is an indictment of your friend's character, or an indication that he is incapable of reading.
That friend did, in fact, try multiple times to read books. He got distracted every time. He wanted to be the kind of guy that could finish books, but he couldn't. I...
(creating a separate thread for this, because I think it's separate from my other reply)
That friend did, in fact, try multiple times to read books. He got distracted every time. He wanted to be the kind of guy that could finish books, but he couldn’t.
You've described the problem exactly. Your friend didn't have a clear reason to read books. He just had this vague notion that reading books was "good". That "smart people" read lots of books. Why? Who knows, they just do.
I read a lot. But I have never read just for the sake of reading. All of my reading h...
Thank you for the feedback! I didn't consider the inherent jumpiness/grabbiness of Subway Surfers, but you're right, something more continuous is preferable. (edit: but isn't the point of the audio to allow your eyes to stray? hmm)
I will probably also take your advice wrt using the Highlights and CFAR handbook excerpts in lieu of the entire remainder of R:AZ.
distillation of Taleb's core idea:
expected value estimates are dominated by tail events (unless the distribution is thin-tailed)
repeated sampling from a distribution usually does not yield information about tail events
therefore repeated sampling can be used to estimate EVs iff the distribution is thin-tailed according to your priors
if the distribution is fat-tailed according to your priors, how to determine EV?
estimating EV is much harder
some will say to use the sample mean as EV anyway, they are wrong
in the absence of information on tail events (which is ...
And how would God predict (with perfect fidelity) what humans would do without simulating them flawlessly? A truly flawless physical simulation has no less moral weight than "reality" -- indeed, the religious argument could very well be that our world exists as a figment of this God's imagination.