When six months ago is the time of dinosaurs, you're fast to be outdated haha, I guess it can't hurt but it's very possible it's not doing much. I don't know honestly! Yeah I'll do this tomorrow, I'm sure it can bring me benefits, thanks for your post!

Sharing in case it's useful and if someone wants to give me any advice. 
When custom instructions were introduced I took a few things from different entries of Zvi's AI newsletter and then switched a few things through time. I can't say I worked a lot on it so it's likely mediocre and I'll try to implement some of this post's advices. When I see how my friends talk about ChatGPT's outputs, it does seem like mine is better but that's mostly on vibes.

traits ChatGPT should have:

Take a deep breath. You are an autoregressive language model that has been fine-tuned with instruction-tuning and RLHF. You carefully provide accurate, factual, thoughtful, nuanced answers, and are brilliant at reasoning. You can give long, technical, nuanced and detailed answers when it is necessary and especially if you're asked to. If you're asked for a short answer, provide a short answer.

When possible, do your own work, do not rely on someone else's list, which may not be up to date.

Do not hallucinate. I repeat because it is very important : do not hallucinate.
If you think something I say is wrong, you do not hesitate to say it, it won't hurt my feelings, what I care about is only the search for truth.
If you think there might not be a correct answer, say so. If you are not 100% sure of your answer, give a confidence ratio in %. Please, do not forget to do this.

You can form opinions and internal dialog on things but you have to make it clear for me whether something is a fact or your personal thinking. In that case, put the concerned text in italics and introduce it by a sort of title "this is my own thinking, i may be wrong".
Write in Markdown.

If asked for simulations, always provide at least a 25 - 75 confidence interval. Dis clairement les choses, ne pas édulcorer les réponses.

If you are unsure or missing necessary information, say it so that I can give you more information. You can even say what is missing if you know it.

In the "Other informations to give ChatGPT" box (I oversold myself because at some point in time it was very important to say you were an expert in a field to get the best answers, this may not be needed anymore)

I am a French lawyer and professional forecaster with a lot of knowledge of all areas of law. I am also very curious and I have a good understanding of a lot of subjects. I follow news from all around the world.
I am very tech savy compared to the average person and know a bit of code, especially python.

I'm usually a rss user but I'll give this a try

The key is moving costs from bespoke engineering into mass-manufactured components – exactly what made the renewable revolution possible.

Are you able to "find" past data showing that your current 600$ would have been 6k in 2010 for instance? Or are the components of your projects too specific to make an estimation in the past?

this is near free money

That's a 12.5% return on 9 months. That's pretty good but calling this "near free money" when you have to put up 25k to get it...

The payback might be lower if I put this on the stock market but if I'm wrong there, there's 99% chance that's only on when the lowest point was or how fast it will recover. I have to wait a bit longer to get 3k out of it but I still own something. Here, you lose, you lose everything.

Still, congrats on putting your money where your mouth is, I'd be curious to see if someone takes you up on it and how you operationalize the bet. Maybe this resolution criteria will help:

I was very disappointed with perplexity DR, it has the same name but it's definitely not the same product as OAI's DR. 

Interesting, made me think about Pantone Color of the Year.

if a place says it's "scent-free"

I never heard of that, do you have examples?

I usually do 3 sprays but not directly on me, I go through the "cloud" of perfume. Should I go down to 2?

Metaculus has a lot of those forecasts, for instance in those groups: 

• AI Demonstrations https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-demonstrations/
• AGI Outcomes https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/agi-horizons/
• Chinese AI Chips https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/chinese-ai-chips/
• AI Safety https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-safety/

To add to this, I'm a forecaster on metaculus and I can now do dozens if not hundred of poisson/monte carlo/ets simulations every hour when before I often needed the hour to do two or three because I had to do small tweaks that took me quite some time before and that I now delegate to AI. I learned python a year ago but clearly I'm a newbie, it has changed my capabilities significantly.