With metaculus I do write my confidence in pretty much every forecast that I make. It has made this better. But even then, when coming back to long term forecasts, I sometimes find myself stunned by my specific %, likely forgetting some of the informations that brought me to that forecast in the first place.

I'm not convinced Trump will succeed and I'm worried by what he would be ok with to reach peace but it is true that he made happen things that seemed unlikely (no war, leaving Afghanistan, korea meeting), nevermind if this meant negotiating with terrible people.

So if you don't care about Ukraine and want the war to stop, I'm also under the impression that Trump is your best shot.

I was scared that by clicking on the red button I was going to launch nukes... so I did not hit it. Now I know that next year I will click.

Well, maybe.

Edit : I should have read more carefully.

We have this forecast on Metaculus that is exactly about such an AI, it would be interesting to try to resolve it : https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/

I was quite pessimistic (for humans) so this would confirm it but I'll wait a bit for more infos and tests before thinking it's over.

It's a pity that you stopped doing these

Sure, if you want to go hands free or mobile you might talk to your phone or computer, but typing is just better than speaking, and a mouse is more precise than a gesture, and AI won’t change that.

This is true for people here but I'm not sure it's necessarily true for the world at large considering the average typing speed. Most people would find it much easier to speak to their computer than type to it. (and they would be able to exchange much faster)