Is AGI already here? Maybe it is only possible to decide in hindsight.
Consider the Kitty Hawk in 1903. It flew a few hundred feet. It couldn't be controlled. It was extremely unsafe. It broke on the fourth flight and was then destroyed by a gust of wind. It was the worst airplane ever. But it was an airplane. The research paradigm that spawned it led a few years later to major commercial and military applications and so the conventional wisdom is that the airplane was invented in 1903. The year of that useless demo!
If the current AI research paradigm leads to powerful AGI with a little bit more engineering and elbow grease then maybe the future will decide that the AGI Kitty Hawk moment was in 2022 or even in 2019. But if the current model stalls out then maybe not.
Is AGI already here? Maybe it is only possible to decide in hindsight.
Consider the Kitty Hawk in 1903. It flew a few hundred feet. It couldn't be controlled. It was extremely unsafe. It broke on the fourth flight and was then destroyed by a gust of wind. It was the worst airplane ever. But it was an airplane. The research paradigm that spawned it led a few years later to major commercial and military applications and so the conventional wisdom is that the airplane was invented in 1903. The year of that useless demo!
If the current AI research paradigm leads to powerful AGI with a little bit more engineering and elbow grease then maybe the future will decide that the AGI Kitty Hawk moment was in 2022 or even in 2019. But if the current model stalls out then maybe not.