Can anyone explain to me how the "1 in 10 million chance" makes sense? I always thought the probability of a tie vote has to be based on the binomial distribution. If we take New Mexico voter population of 1,254,567, assume that the "actual" preference rate is something near even like 51%, then the probability of a tie is 7.11e-113. In general it will be astronomically low, because the binomial distribution is very narrow for large population sizes, like a whole state. Anywhere outside of the expected value, its density will be insignificant. One would need a background preference rate of nearly even, like 50.17% to get to the 1 in 10... (read more)
Can anyone explain to me how the "1 in 10 million chance" makes sense? I always thought the probability of a tie vote has to be based on the binomial distribution. If we take New Mexico voter population of 1,254,567, assume that the "actual" preference rate is something near even like 51%, then the probability of a tie is 7.11e-113. In general it will be astronomically low, because the binomial distribution is very narrow for large population sizes, like a whole state. Anywhere outside of the expected value, its density will be insignificant. One would need a background preference rate of nearly even, like 50.17% to get to the 1 in 10... (read more)