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janklenha

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Director, Czech Priorities

Forecasting for Policy (FORPOL) - Main takeaways, practical learnings & report

Tl;dr: In Czech Priorities, a think tank based in Prague, together with Metaculus, we recently ran a complex forecasting tournament funded by EAIF to support Czech policymaking. Today, we are publishing a write-up of our findings from the tournament, as well as supplementary materials to help any groups of forecasters...

Sep 18, 2023•2

janklenha

Director, Czech Priorities

janklenha — LessWrong

janklenha

Message

Director, Czech Priorities

Forecasting for Policy (FORPOL) - Main takeaways, practical learnings & report

Sep 18, 2023•2

janklenha

Director, Czech Priorities

Forecasting for Policy (FORPOL) - Main takeaways, practical learnings & report

janklenha

Tl;dr: In Czech Priorities, a think tank based in Prague, together with Metaculus, we recently ran a complex forecasting tournament funded by EAIF to support Czech policymaking. Today, we are publishing a write-up of our findings from the tournament, as well as supplementary materials to help any groups of forecasters looking to do the same.

The article was also cross-posted on EA Forum.
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From October 2022 to March 2023, we ran a forecasting tournament with a total of 54 questions. In March, we have discussed some of our preliminary findings in this post.

Almost all of our forecasting questions were developed in cooperation with 16 different public institutions and ministerial departments. Each institution or department defined its... (read 1057 more words →)