Quick note of caution on changing the incentive rate downwards. If you might be sampling in times/places where people have previously experienced the higher incentive, this might trigger a loss framing for people. I.e., if you move to the busier time that will eventually be your normal collection time and location, and give the people who are around then the perception that $5 is the normal compensation they'll get, when that drops to $1 they'll maybe be less inclined to contribute their sample than if they'd never seen the $5 option.
Maybe you could moderate that effect by some creative design like the board saying $1 prominently, then appending "special today $5" somehow in a way that clearly communicates it's a special temporary extra.
Checking about 2 years after my initial post, it looks like $TSLA has fallen by more than 50%: it looks like the split-adjusted price in early April 2022 was around $330 or $340, and today it's around $145.
Eyeballing the chart, it looks like it's always been lower than that in the subsequent period, and was down to around $185 at the 12 month mark that was initially the target of the competition. That last bit is the bit that was least clear to me at the time: it seemed high probability that Tesla stock would have to fall at some point, but I expressed uncertainty about when because I thought there was a fair probability the market could stay irrational for a longer period.
What timezone(s) will this programme be running in, please?
Is the opening paragraph at the top of this article the prompt you have Claude or text for us?
If the latter, could you share the prompt here, please?
There’s this nice paper where a load of different researchers are given the same (I think simulated) data and looked at how researchers result.
Might the research you were thinking of be the work by raphael Silberzahn, Eric L. Uhlmann and Brian Nosek?
Nature comment: https://www.nature.com/articles/526189a
Full research article: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2515245917747646
In the UK, I think the most common assumption for cauliflower ear would be playing rugby, rather than a combat sport.
No idea if that's the statistically correct inference from seeing someone with the condition.
I enjoyed filling this out!
The question here is the opposite of its title:
Unknown features Which of the following features of the LessWrong website did you know how to use before you read this question?
That could result in some respondents answering in reverse if they skim.
As well as the generic suggestions people are making in the answers, it seems like you might be able to get more specific suggestions if the question specified whether you're looking for long distance vs. nearby/in-person dating, and (if the latter) a rough idea of where you are located.
Are either of these relevant?
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x4dG4GhpZH2hgz59x/joy-in-the-merely-real
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hs3ymqypvhgFMkgLb/doublethink-choosing-to-be-biased