I will elaborate on this later, but the social sciences have so so so many variables to consider. Our whole idea of social science is based on human social interaction and good luck understanding even the person next to you , or your partner let alone the other 7-8 billion people. Social science is hard. It's not as black and white as some other sciences are seemingly. It's a how could you possibly understand scenario...

Look at all the good Bill Gates does that I think is effective altruism and he gets vilified . It's a weird thing. I remember watching a patriot act episode https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS9CFBlLOcg

I imagine most good deeds or true altruism takes place on non-measurable scales. It's the thought that counts right? A smile goes a long way, how can you measure a smile, or positive energy.  Whether you throw a dart or follow a non dart follow method, maybe the positive energy put out means something, especially now. 

Would philanthropy be better off it people just threw darts, or if they stuck to tried and true ways of giving? Is not even taking a gamble on a possible great outcome for the overall good a form of genuine altruism?

I just posted about this but is that not why the serenity prayer or saying is so popular? GOD aside whether you are a religious or God person or not the sentiment or logic of the saying holds true - God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference. You should be allowed to ask yourself for that same courage. And I agree that most sources of unhappiness seems to be a violation of expectations. There are many things outside of ones controls and one should perhaps make their expectations logically based on that fact.

In reality it has to be a mixture right? So many parts of my day are absolutely in my control, at least small things for sure. Then there are obviously a ton of things that are 100% out of my control. I guess the goal is to figure out how to navigate the two and find some sort of serenity. After all isn't that the old saying about serenity? I often think about what you have said as an addict. I personally don't believe addiction to be a disease, my DOC is alcohol, and I don't buy into the disease model of addiction. I think it is a choice and maybe a disorder of the brain and semantics on the word "disease". But I can't imagine walking into a cancer ward full of children and saying me too! People don't just get to quit cancer cold turkey. I also understand like you've pointed out, and I reaffirmed that it is both. I have a predisposition to alcoholism because of genetics and it's also something I am aware of and a choice. I thought I'd respond to your post since you were so kind as to reply to my stuff. I find this forum very interesting and I am not nearly as intelligent as most here but man it's fun to bounce ideas!