All of Константин Токмаков's Comments + Replies

The way you describe the consequences of the invention of the Duplicator completely ignores ordinary human qualities. First of all, human ambitions. If you copy a brilliant CEO to replace all middle managers with him, then none of these copies will want to be a middle manager. Or you will have to change their brains so that they are happy with their subordinate position (which is doubtful from the moral side... like this idea in general). If you copy the brilliant president who ruled the country, then the copy discovers that her personal ambitions are not satisfied - he is no longer ruling the country. Similarly with all other options.

Written with the help of an online translator, there may be errors.

"For spreading false information about the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under the guise of reliable reports, a fine of 700 thousand to 1.5 million rubles or a penalty of up to three years in prison is provided.

 

For spreading a fake using one's official position, by a group of persons or by a group of persons with artificial creation of evidence of the prosecution, the penalty will be from five to 10 years in prison. If deliberately false information entailed serious consequences, a penalty of 10 to 15 years in prison is provided."

I was talking about the war in Cyprus.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus

1arunto
Yes, two NATO members were involved on different sides in a civil war in a third (independent & non-NATO) country. I think that lies outside the scope of NATO's Article 5. If Russia were part of NATO, then something like that could have happened, too, e.g.: Romanian and Russian troops fighting each other in a civil war in the Republic of Moldova.

As far as I remember, Turkey and Greece, NATO members, were at war with each other.

1FireStormOOO
My understanding is that if Greece and Turkey decide to go to war over Cyprus NATO would not be compelled to intervene one way or the other.  Presumably neither country would be silly enough to try invoking article 5 in the first place and the rest of the block would be heavily pushing the peace process.
1arunto
I believe their last war ended 1922. But there were times when a next war between them seemed quiet likely and NATO spend a lot of energy discouraging both sides from open hostilities, if I remember correctly.

After studying the situation of Ukraine's economy after 1991 in recent days, I am not surprised by those who think so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine

Yes, a nuclear war would not destroy humanity completely. This is not relevant to this issue. From the fact that there was no nuclear war, we cannot deduce in any way what its probability was. The probability can be deduced only from a thorough assessment of the incidents themselves (the Caribbean crisis and 1983 and other examples) and the possibilities of other incidents.
I hope the translator translated it correctly...

I will add that we do not know what the probability of nuclear escalation was during the Cold War. Perhaps there was a 50 or 90 percent risk of war. Survivorship bias.

9[anonymous]
That doesn't sound right. A nuclear war would not have ended humanity. The fact that we're looking back upon a history where no nuclear war has occurred is evidence against a high risk of war being present during the Cold War. The fact that we're looking back upon multiple "close calls" in the past is an indication that those calls weren't that close after all.

Crimea was also an autonomy, but its independence and the referendum on joining the Russian Federation was not recognized in the world.

Today's news.
Turkey abstained from voting on the suspension of Russia's rights in the Council of Europe.

The US is critically dependent on the production of microchips in Taiwan, there are only economic reasons. The United States has no economic interests in Ukraine.

I add that the precedent for Russia's actions in eastern Ukraine and Crimea was called the independence and international recognition of Kosovo.

 

Kind of. "Why can they, but we can't?"

2Viliam
The autonomy of Kosovo was approved by the UN Security Council, including Russia.

Hello there! Will you translate something else?

 

And yes, even commentators with a different point of view in Runet are called paid.

In Ukraine, the majority will not vote for joining Russia. It is impossible to preserve even the visible legitimacy of such an annexation. When Crimea was annexed, the majority voted for joining Russia. In Luhansk and Donetsk (two separatist regions of eastern Ukraine), the majority voted for independence from Ukraine. These referendums are not recognized by most countries, but there is no doubt about the reality of such sentiments of the local population. It won't work that way with the rest of Ukraine.

The link here was posted in the chat of the translation group of Yudkovsky's articles about AI. Your post was interesting.

In Russia, extremely many are dissatisfied with the collapse of the USSR and the deprivation of Russia's superpower status, therefore they support the return of the former territories or at least political influence on them. In 2014, I also fervently supported the return of Crimea, where almost the entire population is Russian, although I hated Putin. But this was followed by a protracted economic crisis, a drop in household incomes, so now support for Putin's actions is less than at that time.

I'm from Russia. The issue of war splits our society. Young people and intellectuals are mostly against the war, anti-war rallies were held today in most major cities of Russia. But the older generation (conservatives) mostly support the war, some even speak out for the complete annexation of Ukraine (this is hardly possible in reality).
Written with the help of an online translator, my English is very bad, there may be mistakes.

8jaspax
Honest question: why is annexation judged to be impossible? I know nothing about Russia's internal politics, and only a little about Ukraine's but directly annexing conquered Ukrainian territory seems like a completely natural outcome to me.
lsusr220

Thank you for your input. The readership here skews hard toward Europe/America. I appreciate your addition of a voice from Ukraine/Russia.

By the way, your online translator works great.

Among those supportive of the war, what do they want from it? Why do they want to invade?

Thanks, this is very helpful and whatever translator you're using works great.

The Russian army is now about 15 kilometers from Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. At least, it doesn't look like the war can last long.