This argument just occurred to me today and I'm glad to see I'm not alone!
With low epistemic confidence, (even if we assume reality isn't itself a dream) I wonder if the odds of being in a dream at any one time might possibly be higher than 50% as well.
If dream time is likely slowed down and we're in dreaming sleep for a few hours each night (perhaps forgetting most of our dreaming experience), it might only take a few dreams per night to dwarf, say, 14-16 hours of waking experience.
Equally, as the original Simulation Hypothesis is based on the number of simulations vs. base reality, rather than guided by subjective experience of time spent in different 'realities' (of course due to the lack of regular experience of a base reality behind this one), by original simulation logic, perhaps you could argue that, as we have experience of thousands of dream worlds compared to only one reality, that itself might even make any new life situation more likely to be a dream than continued reality?
Of course, I'm not at all confident in this logic, as I wouldn't post this if I really believed this experience was more likely to be a dream, but perhaps it's interesting speculation.
This argument just occurred to me today and I'm glad to see I'm not alone!
With low epistemic confidence, (even if we assume reality isn't itself a dream) I wonder if the odds of being in a dream at any one time might possibly be higher than 50% as well.
If dream time is likely slowed down and we're in dreaming sleep for a few hours each night (perhaps forgetting most of our dreaming experience), it might only take a few dreams per night to dwarf, say, 14-16 hours of waking experience.
Equally, as the original Simulation Hypothesis is based on the number of simulations vs. base reality, rather than guided by subjective experience of time spent in different 'realities' (of course due to the lack of regular experience of a base reality behind this one), by original simulation logic, perhaps you could argue that, as we have experience of thousands of dream worlds compared to only one reality, that itself might even make any new life situation more likely to be a dream than continued reality?
Of course, I'm not at all confident in this logic, as I wouldn't post this if I really believed this experience was more likely to be a dream, but perhaps it's interesting speculation.