Ludwig

Interesting, I see what you mean reagrding probability and it makes sense. I guess perhaps, what is missing is that when it comes to questions of peoples lives we may have a stronger imperative to be more risk-averse. 

I completely agree with you about effect size. I guess what I would say is that that given my point 1 from earlier  about the variety of X-risks coordination would contirbute in solving then the effect size will always be greater. If we want to maximise utility its the best chance we have. The added bonuses are that it is comparatively tractable and immediate avoiding the recent criticicisms about longtermism, while simoultnously being a longtermist solution. 

Regadless, it does seem that coordination problems are underdiscussed in the community, will try and make a decent main post once my academic committments clear up a bit. 

Intersting, yes I am interested in coordination problems. Let me follow this framework, to make a better case. There are three considerations I would like to point out.

1. The utility in adressing coordination problems is that they affect almost all X-risk scenarios.(Nuclear war, bioterror, pandemics, climate change and AGI) Working on coordintion problems reduces not only current suffering but also X-Risk of both AGI and non AGI kinds. 
2. The difference between a 10% chance of something happening that may be an X-Risk in 100 years is not 10 times less then something with a certainity of happening. Its not even comparable because one is a certainity the other a probability, and we only get one roll of the dice (allocation of resources). It seems that the rational choice would always be the certainity. 
3. More succinctly, with two buttons one with a 100% chance of adressing X-Risk and one with a 10% chance, which one would you press?

Why should we throw immense resources on AGI x-risk when the world faces enormous issues with narrow AI right now? (eg. destabalised democracy/mental health crisis/worsening inequality)

Is it simply a matter of how imminent you think AGI is? Surely the opportunity cost is enormous given the money and brainpower we are spending on AGI something many dont even think is possible versus something that is happening right now.