Mateusz Bagiński

Primarily interested in agent foundations and AI macrostrategy.

I endorse and operate by Crocker's rules.

I have not signed any agreements whose existence I cannot mention.

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I guess one's timelines might have gotten longer if one had very high credence that the paradigm opened by o1 is a blind alley (relative to the goal of developing human-worker-omni-replacement-capable AI) but profitable enough that OA gets distracted from its official most ambitious goal.

I'm not that person.

React suggestion/request: "not joint-carving"/"not the best way to think about this topic".

This is kind of "(local) taboo those words" but it's more specific.

terminal values in the first place, as opposed to active blind spots masquerading as terminal values.

Can't one's terminal values be exactly (mechanistically implemented as) active blind spots?

I predict that you would say something like "The difference is that active blind spots can be removed/healed/refactored 'just' by (some kind of) learning, so they're not unchanging as one's terminal values would be assumed to be."?

cover ups

Why do you think there are cover-ups?

More specifically, do you mean that people-in-the-know are not willing to report it or that there is some active silencing or [discouragement of those who would like to bring attention to it] going on?

There was one community alert about Zizians 2y ago here. Before that, there was a discussion of Jessica Taylor's situation being downstream from Vassar's influence but as far as I remember Scott Alexander eventually retracted his claims about this.

In any case, I think this kind of stuff deserves a top-level alert post, like the one about Ziz.

Also: anybody have any recommendations for pundits/analysis sources to follow on the Taiwan situation? (there's Sentinel but I'd like something more in-depth and specifically Taiwan-related)

I think Mesa is saying something like "The missing pieces are too alien for us to expect to discover them by thinking/theorizing but we'll brute-force the AI into finding/growing those missing pieces by dumping more compute into it anyway." and Tsvi's koan post is meant to illustrate how difficult it would be to think oneself into those missing pieces.

Estonia. (Alternatively, Poland, in which case: PLN, not EUR.)

I'm considering donating. Any chance of setting up some tax deduction for Euros?

I think you meant to hide these two sentences in spoiler tags but you didn't

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