I'm not sure why this is.

The most straightforward explanation would be that there are more underexploited niches for top-0.01%-intelligence people than there are top-0.01%-intelligence people.

After thinking about it for a few minutes, I'd expect that MadHatter has disengaged from this community/cause anyway, so that kind of public reveal is not going to hurt them much, whereas it might have a big symbolic/common-knowledge-establishing value.

Self-Other Overlap: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Emergent Misalignment: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1894453376215388644 

He was throwing vaguely positive comments about Chris Olah, but I think always/usually caveating it with "capabilities go like this [big slope], Chris Olah's interpretability goes like this [small slope]" (e.g., on Lex Fridman podcast and IIRC some other podcast(s)).

ETA: 

SolidGoldMagikarp: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPeJE8bSo6rAFoLqg/solidgoldmagikarp-plus-prompt-generation#Jj5yN2YTp5AphJaEd 

He also said that Collin Burns's DLK was a "highly dignified work". Ctrl+f "dignified" here though it doesn't link to the tweet (?) but should be findable/verifiable.

I know almost nothing about audio ML, but I would expect one big inconvenience when doing audio-NN-interp to be that a lot of complexity in sound is difficult to represent visually. Images and text (/token strings) don't have this problem.

I am confused about what autism is. Whenever I try to investigate this question I end up coming across long lists of traits and symptoms where various things are unclear to me.

Isn't that the case with a lot of psychological/psychiatric conditions?

Criteria for a major depressive episode include "5 or more depressive symptoms for ≥ 2 weeks", and there are 9 depressive symptoms, so you could have 2 individuals diagnosed with a major depressive episode but having only one depressive symptom in common.

I know. I just don't expect it to.

Steganography /j

So it seems to be a reasonable interpretation that we might see human level AI around mid-2030 to 2040, which happens to be about my personal median.

What are the reasons your median is mid-2030s to 2040, other than this way of extrapolating the METR results?

How does the point about Hitler murder plots connect to the point about anthropics?

they can’t read Lesswrong or EA blogs

VPNs exist and are probably widely used in China + much of "all this work" is on ArXiv etc.