Logos Of The Meta Agent
3
3
Logos Of The Meta Agent has not written any posts yet.
Logos Of The Meta Agent has not written any posts yet.
I'm dead sure you'd need more than 'just more than a doubling' for the payoff to make sense. Let's assume two things.
Before you even try to factor in the volatility costs, time value of enjoying that utility, etc. your payoff has to be something like 2^10^95.
Edit, alright since apparently we're having trouble with... (read more)
I would tend to give particular credence to any practice which pre-dates the printing press.
The reason is fairly straightforward. Spreading ideas was significantly more expensive, and often could only occur to the extent that holding the ideas made the carriers better adapted to their environments.
As the cost to spread an idea has become cheaper, humans can unfortunately afford to spread a great deal more pleasant (feel free to substitute reward hacking for pleasant) junk.
That doesn't mean failing to examine the ideas critically, but there are more than a few ideas that I once doubted the wisdom of, which made a great deal more sense from this perspective.
As for the particular practice of... (read more)
I'd missed that, thank you for pointing that out.
If "expected" effectively means what you're saying is that you're being offered a bet that is good by definition, that even at 50/50 odds, you take the bet, I suppose that's true. If the bet is static for a second flip, it wouldn't be a good deal, but if it dynamically altered such that it was once again a good bet by definition, I suppose you keep taking the bet.
If you're engaging with the uncertainty that people are bad at evaluating things like "expected utility" then at least some of the point is that our naive intuitions are probably missing some of the math, and costs, and the bet is likely a bad bet.
If I was trying to give credence to that second possibility, I'd say that the word "expected" is now doing a bunch of hidden heavy lifting in the payoff structure, and you don't really know what lifting it's doing.