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According to the emails leaked by Wikileaks, the pre-election polls presented in the media used a technique called oversampling to misrepresent the results.

Sources:

Relevant Quotes:

  • “I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February.”
  • “so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.”
  • [For Arizona] “Research, microtargeting & polling projects - Over-sample Hispanics… - Over-sample the Native American population”
  • [For Florida] “On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
  • [For National] “General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions - Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed - Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed”
  • “The plan includes a possible focus on women, might be something we want to do is over sample if we are worried about a certain group later in the summer."

Interpretation:​

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