This is a forecasting contest with cash prizes that I'm running based on 50 questions about the the 2024 election. Posting it here because I think a lot of people in this community like forecasting, prediction markets, etc. (Actually this is my first LW post after years of lurking. Am I allowed to post stuff like this? If I'm breaking a rule on self-promotion then I apologize.)

The primary goal of the contest is just to have fun and let people try their hand at probabilistic forecasting. But a secondary, behind-the-scenes goal is that I'm try to collect crowdsourced forecast data that can be aggregated to generate a "wisdom of crowds" style average forecast, which I'll then compare to the Manifold and Polymarket predictions on the same questions. Basically the idea is to compare 3 incentives types: non-market but cash prize (my contest), play-money market (Manifold) and real-money market (Polymarket).

Deadline is Monday November 4, before 12 noon US Eastern Time. There's also a separate prize for early predictions made by October 22 (2 weeks before election day). Details on scoring methodology in the post. Please consider entering 🙂

Posts

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Posts

Wikitag Contributions

Comments