Freelance Software Engineer at day, Rationalist and Effective Altruist at night
Currently, under contract @ METR.
Anonymous Feedback Form: https://www.admonymous.co/martin-milbradt
Wiki Contributions
Their research is done on the population level, and they consider adverse selection effects somewhat (people with increased risk are more likely to insure against that risk), but it's far from perfect. I've worked in insurance and profited from insurance financially in cases where I expected the insurance to be positive EV beforehand.
Professional experience (Germany):
- Some insurance products run at an (accepted) deficit, as they acquire customers who then buy more (money making) insurance products. Examples: Personal Liability Insurance, Motor vehicle liability
- There is significant friction between the different departments within an insurance and with the insurance agents, causing mispricing from a risk-perspective (some parties care more about raw sales volume).
- Nobody really knows what they are doing.
Personal experience:
- Personal Liability insurance is dirt cheap in Germany and makes money off people who don't report their damages (e.g. will pay for a friend's phone or camera they dropped themselves).
- Insurance for bikes in Berlin. 3 of my bikes were stolen within 3 years and the insurance costing <€100/yr covered all of them.
Nice article! I'm practice you can get positive expected value insurance though, since you know more about your risk (in some cases) than the insurance does. The other way around in some cases the insurance is better at estimating your risk and might "rip you off" if they (correctly) assume you overestimate your risk.
Thanks for the lovely meetup, everyone!
You can contact me about anything here or at https://t.me/truemilli. Please don't hesitate to get in touch if you have criticism or had a bad experience.
Use this formula for anonymous sharing or feedback: https://www.admonymous.co/martin-milbradt
Update: We'll be joining forces with the Qualia Research Institute, who are in Berlin this week: https://qualiacomputing.com/2024/05/17/qri-in-germany/
I think we'll get along great and there's a big overlap. Scott:
The Qualia Research Institute is doing absolutely picture-perfect mad science.
Just an info, nothing actually changes!
Note: Most RSVPs (29 as of now) are on Meetup.
Long survey is long.
1
1ChatGPT is using Whisper for speech to text, which is open source and available through OpenAIs APIs.
I personally tried to use more text to speech on my phone, but was annoyed by it and went back to typing.
I've heard Whisper is a definite step-up, especially when mixing English and German.
https://openai.com/research/whisper
https://github.com/openai/whisper
https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/whisper
€: This used to say text to speech.
Hey everyone, I'm amazed with how many people showed up and the atmosphere. I hope you had fun and interesting conversations as well. If you want to be connected to the Berlin Rationality or EA communities, just contact me! Contact: acx-meetups@martinmilbradt.de, t.me/truemilli or @Milli | Martin.
PS.: "My" monthly workshop is happening tomorrow evening, happy to have you: The Art of Difficult Conversations - Workshop.
Here are the links to the articles from the books. Let me know if there are any mistakes.
Notes:
I didn't find "Do Birth Order Effects Exist?", "Challenges to Christiano's Iterated Amplification Proposal" seems to be only on intelligence.org and "Response to FAQ on Iterated Amplification" seems to be a comment and not a post of it's own.